Humana Inc (HUM)

Price$386.87Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-30 11:17 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkAt $378, Humana already prices in a substantial earnings recovery.

The last regular-session price before the timestamp was August 19's $378.02 close, implying about $45.4 billion of market value using 120.1 million shares. That is about 38 times 2025 reported profit per share of $9.84 and 42 times management’s 2026 adjusted earnings floor—profit per share excluding selected unusual items—of $9. For a 10% annual return through 2028, the shares would need to reach about $473; assuming a 12-15 times earnings valuation then requires roughly $32-$39 of 2028 profit per share. An analyst inferred $38-$42 from Humana’s framework, but management did not endorse it. The limited margin for error supports Fair-priced.

Big pictureProfit has fallen sharply, while cash generation is recovering but still uneven.

The supplied SEC-derived history shows net income falling from $3.37 billion in 2020 to $1.19 billion in 2025, while diluted profit per share fell from $25.31 to $9.84. Operating cash flow dropped from $5.64 billion to $0.92 billion; after $546 million of capital spending, 2025 free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was only about $375 million. First-half 2026 operating cash flow recovered to $3.22 billion from $1.60 billion, but the filing says timing of claims and payments helped, including a $1.05 billion Medicaid payment that settled just after quarter-end. Cash durability therefore remains unproven.

Business strengthThe balance sheet is serviceable, but debt limits how aggressively Humana can return cash.

At June 30, Humana held $6.89 billion of cash against $14.25 billion of short- and long-term debt, leaving about $7.35 billion more debt than cash. Management reported debt equal to 42.7% of debt plus equity, slightly above its roughly 40% long-term target. Capital returns have therefore stayed restrained: first-half 2026 buybacks were $108 million and dividends were $214 million, while stock-based pay was $116 million. Shares outstanding fell from about 120.6 million in January to 120.1 million in June, so dilution is not currently a major problem.

What could change the storyBetter margins and quality scores can unlock upside, while missed targets create sharp downside.

The bull case is recovery: Humana says 2027 plan pricing should move Medicare toward at least a 3% pre-tax margin, meaning profit before tax as a share of revenue, in 2028. First-half individual Medicare membership rose 23%, and CenterWell primary-care patients rose 27%. The bear case is stubborn medical costs: the 2026 insurance benefit ratio—the share of premium revenue spent on member care—is guided near 92.75%, with the third quarter expected above 94%. The December 10 investor update is the next test. Roughly $32-$39 of 2028 earnings per share supports today’s price; materially less weakens it.

AI: News

Guidance reaffirmationHumana reaffirmed its 2026 profit floor, easing fears of another near-term cut.

On June 1, 2026, Humana reaffirmed 2026 earnings of at least $8.36 per share under standard accounting and at least $9.00 on its adjusted basis, which excludes selected unusual items. Contemporary market reporting said the shares jumped about 7.7% in morning trading after the filing. The move matters because investors had been worried that rising Medicare medical costs could force another downgrade. The filing did not improve the formal target; it reduced near-term uncertainty about whether the existing target still held.

Gentiva stake saleHumana agreed to sell Gentiva for about $900 million, adding balance-sheet flexibility without changing guidance.

On June 10, 2026, Humana agreed to sell all or substantially all of its minority stake in hospice provider Gentiva, valuing the interest at about $900 million. The transaction was expected to close in the third quarter, subject to approvals, and Humana said it should not materially affect 2026 earnings. The value is mainly financial flexibility: converting a non-core holding into cash can support debt reduction, acquisitions, or other corporate needs. No reliable source tied a large one-day stock move directly to the deal.

Second-quarter resetStrong quarterly earnings were overshadowed by unchanged adjusted guidance and a lower reported-profit outlook.

On July 29, 2026, Humana reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $7.61 per share, above the $7.22 analyst estimate cited by Reuters, while medical spending matched expectations. It kept full-year adjusted earnings at at least $9.00 and cut its standard-accounting earnings floor to $6.52 from $8.36. Reuters reported the shares down about 5% in morning trading as investors focused on the unchanged outlook after a strong rally. The reaction shows how much recovery optimism had already entered the price.

2027 plan pullbacksHumana plans to exit weaker Medicare plans, trading some enrollment for better future margins.

On August 16, 2026, MarketWatch reported that Humana’s 2027 plan exits or reductions would affect about 600,000 Medicare Advantage members, roughly 8% of enrollment, with the company expecting to retain about 40% in other offerings. The economic logic is important: leaving unprofitable areas can improve future margins, but losing members reduces premium revenue and scale. No distinct one-day stock move can be confidently assigned to this report, so its significance is better viewed as a change in the 2027 earnings trade-off than as a proven price catalyst.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$5.83B	$4.43B	$4.03B	$4.78B	$3.06B	$1.81B	$1.44B	$1.46B	$982.0M	$969.0M	$54.29B	$48.50B	$41.31B	$39.13B	$36.83B	$33.60B	$30.74B	$28.95B	$25.29B
Operating income	$2.70B	$2.56B	$4.01B	$3.80B	$3.15B	$4.99B	$3.19B	$3.10B	$4.26B	$1.74B	$2.35B	$2.36B	$2.06B	$2.02B	$2.34B	$1.85B	$1.71B	$1.07B	$1.36B
Operating margin	46.36%	57.82%	99.50%	79.56%	103.04%	274.71%	221.82%	212.77%	434.01%	179.67%	4.32%	4.87%	4.99%	5.15%	6.36%	5.52%	5.56%	3.71%	5.37%
EBITDA	$3.40B	$3.40B	$4.79B	$4.51B	$3.74B	$5.60B	$3.77B	$3.54B	$4.67B	$2.13B	$2.70B	$2.69B	$2.37B	$2.35B	$2.65B	$2.12B	$1.96B	$1.29B	$1.54B
EBITDA margin	58.32%	76.75%	118.82%	94.41%	122.55%	308.65%	261.78%	243.24%	475.76%	219.71%	4.98%	5.55%	5.74%	6.02%	7.19%	6.30%	6.37%	4.47%	6.10%
Net income	$1.19B	$1.21B	$2.49B	$2.81B	$2.93B	$3.37B	$2.71B	$1.68B	$2.45B	$614.0M	$1.28B	$1.15B	$1.23B	$1.22B	$1.42B	$1.10B	$1.04B	$647.2M	$833.7M
Net profit margin	20.37%	27.24%	61.72%	58.75%	96.01%	185.51%	188.12%	115.51%	249.29%	63.36%	2.35%	2.36%	2.98%	3.12%	3.85%	3.27%	3.38%	2.24%	3.30%
Basic EPSper basic share	$9.87	$10.01	$20.09	$22.20	$22.79	$25.47	$20.20	$12.24	$16.94	$4.11	$8.54	$7.44	$7.81	$7.56	$8.58	$6.55	$6.21	$3.87	$5.00
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$9.84	$9.98	$20.00	$22.08	$22.67	$25.31	$20.10	$12.16	$16.81	$4.07	$8.44	$7.36	$7.73	$7.47	$8.46	$6.47	$6.15	$3.83	$4.91

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

9.11%of listed shares

Dodge & Cox10.94M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of HUM
Holder	% owned
Dodge & Cox	9.11%10.94M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	8.68%10.42M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	6.53%7.84M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.85%5.82M shares
STATE STREET CORP	4.54%5.46M shares
PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC	3.67%4.4M shares
EAGLE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.20%3.85M shares
Sessa Capital IM, L.P.	3.10%3.73M shares
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/	2.98%3.58M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.81%3.37M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	2.69%3.23M shares
FMR LLC	2.43%2.91M shares
Capital International Investors	1.99%2.39M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.92%2.3M shares
NAYA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT UK LTD	1.53%1.83M shares
NORGES BANK	1.46%1.75M shares
Invesco Ltd.	1.23%1.48M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	1.14%1.37M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	1.12%1.35M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	0.93%1.12M shares

Percentages use 120.08M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys2$1.65M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)1$948.9K disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 23, 2026Form 4	Shetty Sanjay KPresident, CenterWell	BuyHumana Common	810	$185.21	$150.0K	11.7K
May 14, 2025Form 4	Rechtin James A.President & CEO	BuyHumana Common · indirect	6.5K	$229.25	$1.50M	30.5K
Dec 31, 2024Form 4	Huval Timothy S.Chief Administrative Officer	SellHumana Common	3.7K	$256.26	$948.9K	8.2K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Humana Inc (HUM)

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