IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA)

Price$38.61Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-18 08:49 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because investors already pay heavily for future drug approvals despite a strong balance sheet.

Using roughly 96.5 million basic shares, the market values IDEAYA near $3.8 billion; including 6.43 million pre-funded warrants, which can become shares for almost no extra cash, lifts that to about $4.1 billion. Against about $1.24 billion of cash, equivalents, and marketable securities plus only about $29 million of debt, investors assign roughly $2.9 billion to the pipeline and future commercial business. That is demanding for a loss-making company, but darovasertib has registrational data and IDE849 now has an FDA-aligned Phase 3 path. That balance supports Fair-priced. Investor Relations | IDEAYA Biosciences+3StockAnalysis.com+3SEC+3

Big pictureIDEAYA has years of funding, but current earnings still depend on uneven partnership payments.

Revenue is not yet a stable sales engine. The supplied history shows 2025 revenue of $218.7 million, while the first half of 2026 produced only $15.4 million; much of 2025 reflected the Servier licensing deal rather than recurring product sales. First-half 2026 net loss was about $211 million and operating cash outflow was $163.4 million. The offset is liquidity: management reported about $1.24 billion of cash, equivalents, and marketable securities and kept runway guidance into 2030. That makes near-term financing risk low, but earnings remain lumpy. Pasted text Investor Relations | IDEAYA Biosciences+1

Business strengthStrong late-stage cancer data and retained U.S. rights give the pipeline meaningful commercial value.

Darovasertib is the clearest asset. In first-line metastatic uveal melanoma, median progression-free survival, meaning time before the cancer worsened, was 6.9 months versus 3.1 months for physician-chosen therapy, cutting progression risk by 58%; response rates were 37.1% versus 5.8%. Overall survival was still immature, so this is not the same as an approved drug. IDEAYA keeps U.S. commercial rights, while Servier holds rights elsewhere and can pay up to $320 million in additional milestones plus mid-teens to low-twenties royalties. Investor Relations | IDEAYA Biosciences+1

What could change the storyApproval progress could unlock value, while further dilution or weak trial results would erode it.

The bull case needs darovasertib filing and review to stay on track, IDE849 to confirm attractive response and durability in larger data sets, and another pipeline asset to become convincingly late stage. The bear case is per-share erosion before those wins arrive. Basic shares rose from about 65.0 million at the end of 2023 to 96.4 million by June 2026, while 6.43 million pre-funded warrants were also outstanding and first-half stock compensation was $31.2 million. June's financing bought valuable runway, but another large raise before commercial revenue would weaken the per-share thesis. Pasted text SEC+2SEC+2

AI: News

IDE849 Phase 3 pathRegulators created a workable Phase 3 path for IDE849, reducing uncertainty about its approval strategy.

On August 31, IDEAYA said a U.S. Food and Drug Administration meeting supported a roughly 400-patient randomized Phase 3 study in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer, with tumor response as the accelerated-approval endpoint and overall survival for full approval. The company targets a start by year-end 2026 and expects larger clinical updates before then. This lowers uncertainty about trial design, but it does not prove the drug works well enough; efficacy and safety risk remain. Investor Relations | IDEAYA Biosciences

Genentech combination studyGenentech agreed to sponsor an IDE892 combination study, adding external validation without taking IDEAYA's commercial rights.

On August 19, Genentech and IDEAYA agreed to test IDE892 with Genentech's KRAS G12D inhibitor in a genetically defined subset of pancreatic cancer. Genentech will sponsor the trial, IDEAYA will supply IDE892, and both companies keep commercial rights to their own drugs. IDEAYA estimates the two genetic changes occur together in up to about 15% of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients. The collaboration broadens development at limited direct study cost to IDEAYA, though it remains early-stage evidence. Investor Relations | IDEAYA Biosciences

June capital raiseJune's equity raise sharply improved funding security, but it also diluted each existing share's claim on future success.

On June 10, IDEAYA closed an offering of 7.22 million common shares plus pre-funded warrants for 5.56 million more shares, generating about $345 million gross and $323.4 million net. The shares fell about 7.9% after hours when the proposed offering was announced; that timing is consistent with dilution concerns but does not prove sole causation. The cash materially strengthened runway into 2030, reducing financing risk while increasing the future share count. Investor Relations | IDEAYA Biosciences+2Investing.com+2

Darovasertib trial winDarovasertib's registrational trial delivered a clear efficacy win, making the nearest product launch more credible.

On June 1, IDEAYA and Servier reported that darovasertib plus crizotinib extended median time before disease progression to 6.9 months from 3.1 months in first-line metastatic uveal melanoma. Independent reviewers measured a 37.1% response rate versus 5.8% for physician-chosen therapy. Overall survival data were not yet mature, so an important uncertainty remains. IDEAYA said it was working toward completing the U.S. new drug application in the second half of 2026, moving the asset closer to possible commercialization. Investor Relations | IDEAYA Biosciences

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Revenue	$218.7M	$7.0M	$23.4M	$50.9M	$27.9M	$19.5M	$0	—	—
Research & development	$314.7M	$294.7M	$129.5M	$89.5M	$58.2M	$39.7M	$34.3M	$31.7M	$12.4M
Operating expenses	$378.0M	$334.0M	$157.8M	$113.4M	$78.2M	$54.9M	$44.3M	$36.4M	$14.4M
Operating income	−$159.3M	−$327.0M	−$134.4M	−$62.5M	−$50.3M	−$35.3M	−$44.3M	−$36.4M	−$14.4M
Operating margin	−72.84%	−4,671.07%	−574.85%	−122.72%	−179.91%	−180.90%	—	—	—
EBITDA	−$156.6M	−$324.6M	−$132.0M	−$60.4M	−$48.5M	−$34.0M	−$43.0M	−$35.5M	−$14.0M
EBITDA margin	−71.61%	−4,636.97%	−564.26%	−118.59%	−173.73%	−173.83%	—	—	—
Net income	−$113.7M	−$274.5M	−$113.0M	−$58.7M	−$49.8M	−$34.5M	−$42.0M	−$34.3M	−$11.9M
Net profit margin	−51.99%	−3,921.10%	−483.05%	−115.17%	−178.10%	−176.55%	—	—	—
Basic EPSper basic share	-$1.28	-$3.36	-$1.96	-$1.42	-$1.41	-$1.40	-$3.36	-$35.92	-$17.06
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$1.28	-$3.36	-$1.96	-$1.42	-$1.41	-$1.40	-$3.36	-$35.92	-$17.06

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

14.64%of listed shares

FMR LLC14.11M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of IDYA
Holder	% owned
FMR LLC	14.64%14.11M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	9.23%8.89M shares
Jupiter Topco LLC	8.90%8.58M shares
Capital Research Global Investors	5.55%5.34M shares
BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP	5.20%5.01M shares
STATE STREET CORP	4.72%4.55M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.29%4.13M shares
Logos Global Management LP	3.11%3M shares
ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C.	2.82%2.72M shares
DEERFIELD MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P.	2.82%2.71M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.52%2.43M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	2.29%2.21M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.00%1.93M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.72%1.66M shares
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	1.69%1.63M shares
Fiera Capital Corp	1.50%1.45M shares
FEDERATED HERMES, INC.	1.49%1.43M shares
GSK plc	1.38%1.33M shares
BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT Holding S.A.	1.32%1.27M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.28%1.23M shares