Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW)

Price$49.87Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-06 22:59 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe stock looks fair-priced because the current valuation assumes a meaningful earnings recovery, but not a full one.

At the observed quote, the company is valued near $7.6 billion for its shares and about $11.4 billion including net debt. That is about 27 times reported 2026 earnings and 18 times adjusted earnings, which exclude management-identified unusual items; it is also about 18 times the midpoint of management’s 2027 outlook. Fiscal 2026 free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was about $540 million, a 7% yield on equity value. Using that cash flow, a 9%-10% required return and 2%-3% long-run growth imply roughly $6.9-$9.3 billion of equity value, bracketing the market.

Big pictureCash generation improved sharply, but profits remain well below recent peaks and debt still limits flexibility.

Revenue reached $6.61 billion in 2026, up 2%, yet net income fell 19% to $290 million and diluted earnings per share dropped to $2.08 from $2.50. Operating cash flow rose to $943 million while capital spending fell to about $403 million from $638 million in 2025 and $930 million in 2024, lifting free cash flow to roughly $540 million. The improvement is real, but partly reflects completed expansion projects. Net debt remains about $3.86 billion, almost four times reported EBITDA—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization—so cash durability matters more than headline growth.

Business strengthNorth America is gaining customers and volume, while pricing pressure and overseas weakness keep returns uneven.

Fiscal 2026 volume grew 7%, including 9% in North America, but price and product mix reduced sales by about 6%. North America adjusted EBITDA rose 3% to $1.14 billion, while International fell 55% to $115 million. Capital allocation improved: Lamb Weston paid $208 million of dividends and repurchased $113 million of stock; shares outstanding fell about 1.3% year over year despite $46 million of stock compensation. Debt also declined about $220 million, but only $68 million of cash remained, leaving the balance sheet adequate rather than conservative.

What could change the storyThe upside needs cost savings and international repair; renewed pricing pressure would quickly weaken the case.

The strongest bull case is that customer wins, lower capital needs and the three-year savings program lift earnings without requiring strong sales growth. Management says it already exceeded its $100 million fiscal 2026 savings milestone and targets at least $250 million of annualized savings by fiscal 2028. The bear case is visible too: 2026 price and mix fell 6%, International adjusted EBITDA dropped 55%, and net debt is heavy. The thesis strengthens if International profit rebounds and free cash flow stays above roughly $500 million; it weakens if pricing support keeps eroding margins or debt stops falling.

AI: News

Full-year results and outlookStronger North American volumes beat expectations, but the new outlook still points to slow sales growth.

On July 24, Lamb Weston reported fiscal 2026 sales of $6.61 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion, both above its guidance range, while adjusted earnings per share were $3.01. For fiscal 2027, management guided to flat-to-1% sales growth, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1-$1.2 billion, adjusted earnings per share of $2.95-$3.25, and $380-$410 million of cash capital spending. Shares rose 1.7% before the open and 0.8% that day; a further 7.1% rise next session cannot be attributed solely to the earnings report.

Third-quarter guidance resetManagement raised full-year targets and cut planned spending, yet profit weakness exposed serious international pressure.

On April 1, fiscal third-quarter sales rose 3% to $1.56 billion and adjusted earnings beat expectations, but reported net income fell 63%. Volume increased 7% while price and product mix fell 7%, and International absorbed a roughly $33 million potato write-off amid weak demand and underused plants. Management lifted the low end of sales guidance, narrowed its adjusted EBITDA range, and cut planned capital spending to about $400 million from $500 million. The stock fell about 9% that day; contemporary coverage linked the reaction to pricing and margin concerns.

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Financial statements

	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	$6.61B	$6.45B	$6.47B	$5.35B	$4.10B	$3.67B	$3.79B	$3.76B	$3.42B	$3.17B	$2.99B	$2.92B
Gross profit	$1.36B	$1.40B	$1.77B	$1.43B	$832.0M	$832.0M	$895.2M	$1.00B	$879.5M	$778.8M	$661.8M	$587.3M
Gross margin	20.56%	21.68%	27.32%	26.77%	20.30%	22.66%	23.61%	26.71%	25.69%	24.58%	22.11%	20.08%
Research & development	$18.9M	$22.0M	$26.4M	$17.2M	$16.2M	$12.9M	$15.4M	$15.4M	$13.5M	$10.6M	$6.7M	$7.2M
Operating expenses	$768.6M	$733.5M	$701.4M	$550.0M	$387.6M	$357.2M	$338.3M	$335.1M	$299.4M	$260.5M	$288.5M	$205.9M
Operating income	$591.1M	$665.1M	$1.07B	$882.1M	$444.4M	$474.8M	$556.9M	$668.4M	$580.1M	$518.3M	$373.3M	$381.4M
Operating margin	8.94%	10.31%	16.47%	16.49%	10.84%	12.93%	14.68%	17.79%	16.94%	16.36%	12.47%	13.04%
EBITDA	$987.8M	$1.04B	$1.37B	$1.10B	$636.5M	$662.6M	$739.2M	$830.8M	$723.4M	$627.4M	$469.2M	$477.8M
EBITDA margin	14.94%	16.12%	21.21%	20.65%	15.53%	18.05%	19.49%	22.12%	21.13%	19.80%	15.67%	16.34%
Net income	$290.0M	$357.2M	$725.5M	$1.01B	$200.9M	$317.8M	$365.9M	$478.6M	$416.8M	$326.9M	$285.3M	$268.3M
Net profit margin	4.39%	5.54%	11.22%	18.86%	4.90%	8.66%	9.65%	12.74%	12.17%	10.32%	9.53%	9.17%
Basic EPSper basic share	$2.09	$2.51	$5.01	$6.98	$1.38	$2.17	$2.50	$3.19	$2.83	$2.22	$1.92	$1.83
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$2.08	$2.50	$4.98	$6.95	$1.38	$2.16	$2.49	$3.18	$2.82	$2.22	$1.92	$1.83

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈12.30%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.16.91M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of LW
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	≈12.30%16.91M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	≈6.67%9.17M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	≈5.85%8.04M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	≈5.18%7.11M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	≈4.36%6M shares
Starboard Value LP	≈4.17%5.73M shares
JANA Partners Management, LP	≈3.92%5.39M shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	≈3.58%4.93M shares
STATE STREET CORP	≈3.54%4.87M shares
FMR LLC	≈2.78%3.82M shares
CONTINENTAL GRAIN CO	≈2.60%3.57M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	≈2.43%3.35M shares
NORGES BANK	≈1.79%2.46M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	≈1.70%2.34M shares
Brookfield Corp /ON/	≈1.62%2.23M shares
Douglas Lane & Associates, LLC	≈1.22%1.68M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	≈1.14%1.56M shares
NOMURA ASSET MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL INC.	≈1.10%1.52M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	≈1.10%1.51M shares
JUPITER ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD	≈0.91%1.24M shares

Percentages use 137.46M shares of this listed class outstanding on May 31, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys15$20.82M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)1$100.0K disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 11, 2026Form 4	Gray James DChief Financial Officer	BuyCommon Stock	5.0K	$40.90	$204.5K	69.7K
May 11, 2026Form 4	Gray James DChief Financial Officer	BuyCommon Stock	5.0K	$40.95	$204.8K	64.7K
Apr 27, 2026Form 4	Gray James DChief Financial Officer	BuyCommon Stock	4.6K	$43.85	$199.8K	59.7K
Apr 15, 2026Form 4	JANA Partners Management, LPDirector,Other	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	50.0K	$43.19	$2.16M	5.40M
Apr 13, 2026Form 4	JANA Partners Management, LPDirector,Other	BuyCommon Stock, par value $1.00 per share ("Common Stock") · indirect	100.0K	$42.12	$4.21M	5.35M

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW)

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