Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

Price$194.82Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-25 00:06 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkAfter a huge oncology-driven rerating, the valuation assumes substantial future profits that are not yet visible.

Moderna, Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA) has roughly 399 million shares outstanding, so the observed quote implies an equity value near $54 billion. Against 2025 revenue of $1.944 billion and management's plan for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, that is roughly 25 times prospective sales. Market capitalization means the market value of all shares. That multiple can work if oncology becomes a multi-billion-dollar, high-margin franchise; it looks demanding if respiratory revenue stays modest and intismeran ramps slowly.

Big pictureRevenue is recovering from a low base, but losses and cash use remain heavy and seasonal.

Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $145 million and net loss was $782 million. For the first half, operating cash outflow was $1.156 billion; cash and investments totaled $6.91 billion at June 30. Management's pre-financing year-end cash guide was $4.7-$5.2 billion. Cash burn means operations consume cash rather than produce it. Respiratory vaccines are seasonal, with unpredictable orders and delivery timing, so one weak quarter should not be annualized, but the business still needs materially better sales and margins to become self-funding.

Business strengthModerna has platform breadth, multiple approved vaccines, strong liquidity, and a newly validated oncology engine.

Moderna now has approved COVID, RSV, flu and European flu-COVID products, plus long-term government manufacturing arrangements in the UK, Canada and Australia. The strongest new evidence is positive Phase 3 melanoma data for intismeran with Merck, where development costs and future profits or losses are generally shared equally. At June 30, long-term debt was $591 million. The September convertible-note financing added substantial liquidity at zero regular interest, reducing near-term funding risk while shifting more value onto successful pipeline execution.

What could change the storyFull cancer data, regulatory timing, commercial scale, and financing choices will decide whether the premium holds.

Bull case assumes intismeran launches in 2027 and grows toward $3-$5 billion of annual sales by the early 2030s, with cash burn ending by 2029. Bear case assumes approval slips past 2027, oncology stays below $2 billion annually, and respiratory revenue remains weak. The new notes could convert into about 14.25 million shares initially, roughly 3.6% of the June share count, though capped calls are designed to reduce dilution. Moderna also had $1.7 billion of unused buyback authorization but repurchased no shares in the first half.

AI: News

Convertible financing completedModerna completed an upsized zero-coupon convertible note sale, adding cash while creating future dilution risk.

On September 1, Moderna closed $3.0 billion of 0% convertible senior notes due 2032 after buyers exercised the full option. Net proceeds were about $2.96 billion; $328.8 million funded capped-call hedges intended to reduce future dilution. Remaining proceeds can fund oncology, general corporate needs, or debt repayment. The financing improves liquidity, but adds a large maturity and potential equity dilution if the stock rises enough.

Melanoma trial succeedsPositive Phase 3 melanoma results provided major clinical validation for Moderna's personalized cancer-vaccine platform.

On August 19, Moderna and Merck said intismeran plus Keytruda met the Phase 3 trial's primary recurrence endpoint and secondary distant-metastasis endpoint in high-risk melanoma after surgery. The result is the first positive late-stage personalized mRNA cancer-vaccine trial and materially strengthens platform credibility. Full efficacy and safety details, including overall-survival information, were still pending, leaving commercial scale, pricing and manufacturing economics as key open questions.

Flu vaccine approvedFDA approval of mFLUSIVA adds another commercial product but meaningful near-term sales may remain limited.

On August 6, the FDA approved mFLUSIVA for adults 50 and older, with traditional approval for ages 50-64 and accelerated approval for those 65 and older. The latter requires additional confirmatory evidence. The approval broadens Moderna beyond COVID and RSV, but analysts cited by Reuters expected little meaningful U.S. revenue until the second half of 2027 because the 2026 flu contracting cycle was already missed.

Q2 loss narrowsQuarterly results showed better cost control and cash guidance, alongside another important pipeline setback.

On July 31, Moderna reported second-quarter revenue of $145 million and a $782 million net loss, while improving its 2026 operating-expense outlook and pre-financing year-end cash forecast to $4.7-$5.2 billion. Management reiterated a plan for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. Separately, the Phase 3 norovirus vaccine failed the statistical bar for early success at interim analysis, prompting enrollment of an additional cohort.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Revenue	$1.94B	$3.24B	$6.85B	$19.26B	$18.47B	$803.0M	$60.2M	$135.1M	$205.8M	$108.4M
Gross profit	$1.08B	$1.77B	$2.15B	$13.85B	$15.85B	$795.0M	$60.2M	$135.1M	—	—
Gross margin	55.35%	54.76%	31.47%	71.88%	85.83%	99.00%	100.00%	100.00%	—	—
Research & development	$3.13B	$4.54B	$4.84B	$3.29B	$1.99B	$1.37B	$496.0M	$454.1M	$410.5M	$274.7M
Operating expenses	$5.02B	$7.18B	$11.09B	$9.84B	$5.17B	$1.57B	$606.0M	$548.3M	$475.2M	$332.2M
Operating income	−$3.07B	−$3.94B	−$4.24B	$9.42B	$13.30B	−$763.0M	−$546.0M	−$413.3M	−$269.4M	−$223.8M
Operating margin	−158.13%	−121.91%	−61.90%	48.90%	71.98%	−95.02%	−906.84%	−305.97%	−130.87%	−206.44%
EBITDA	−$2.86B	−$3.76B	−$3.62B	$9.77B	$13.53B	−$732.0M	−$515.0M	−$388.4M	−$248.8M	−$208.7M
EBITDA margin	−147.27%	−116.19%	−52.89%	50.71%	73.24%	−91.16%	−855.35%	−287.56%	−120.89%	−192.50%
Net income	−$2.82B	−$3.56B	−$4.71B	$8.36B	$12.20B	−$747.0M	−$514.0M	−$384.7M	−$255.9M	−$216.2M
Net profit margin	−145.16%	−110.04%	−68.84%	43.41%	66.06%	−93.03%	−853.69%	−284.84%	−124.34%	−199.46%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$7.26	-$9.28	-$12.33	$21.26	$30.31	-$1.96	-$1.55	-$4.95	-$4.18	-$3.79
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$7.26	-$9.28	-$12.33	$20.12	$28.29	-$1.96	-$1.55	-$4.95	-$4.18	-$3.79

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

13.00%of listed shares

FMR LLC51.86M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of MRNA
Holder	% owned
FMR LLC	13.00%51.86M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	7.67%30.6M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	5.82%23.21M shares
Capital World Investors	5.58%22.28M shares
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	4.56%18.21M shares
STATE STREET CORP	3.94%15.73M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	3.91%15.58M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.43%9.71M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.39%9.54M shares
Theleme Partners LLP	2.02%8.06M shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	1.80%7.19M shares
Invesco Ltd.	1.45%5.78M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	1.40%5.59M shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	1.21%4.84M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.17%4.67M shares
Flagship Pioneering, LLC	1.16%4.63M shares
UBS Group AG	1.12%4.46M shares
BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS	1.10%4.38M shares
NORGES BANK	0.76%3.03M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.75%2.99M shares

Percentages use 399M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$6.01M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)47$25.11M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Hoge StephenPresident	SellCommon Stock	53.3K	$51.37	$2.74M	1.48M
Jun 4, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal Officer	SellCommon Stock	3.5K	$50.00	$173.6K	67.5K
May 21, 2026Form 4	AFEYAN NOUBARDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	9.3K	$46.84	$433.9K	3.9K
May 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Hoge StephenPresident	SellCommon Stock	53.3K	$48.40	$2.58M	1.48M
May 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Hussain AbbasDirector	SellCommon Stock	5.7K	$46.63	$265.0K	12.1K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

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