Natera, Inc. (NTRA)

Price$325.87Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe market price already assumes years of unusually strong growth and much better cash profits.

Using roughly 144 million shares and about $1.0 billion of net cash, the observed price implies an enterprise value near $46 billion. That is about 16 times the midpoint of management’s $2.85-$2.91 billion 2026 revenue outlook and roughly 17 times recent twelve-month revenue. Free cash flow, meaning cash left after operations and capital spending, was only about $84 million over the latest four quarters. The valuation therefore depends far more on future scale and margins than on cash being produced today.

Big pictureSales are growing remarkably fast, but accounting losses and thin cash conversion still limit downside protection.

Revenue rose 38% year over year in the latest quarter and about 36% in 2025, while oncology testing grew 57% in the latest quarter. Yet Natera still lost $67 million in that quarter and $151 million during the first half of 2026. First-half operating cash flow was about $95 million, but capital spending consumed about $86 million, leaving little cash after investment. Demand is less tied to normal economic cycles than many businesses, but reimbursement decisions and clinical adoption can still change growth sharply.

Business strengthRapid oncology adoption and a cash-rich balance sheet give Natera meaningful financial and competitive strength.

Natera processed about 1.04 million tests in the latest quarter, including 296,700 oncology tests, while revenue per test also benefited from better pricing. Cash and equivalents exceeded $1.09 billion against only about $80 million of debt, leaving roughly $1.01 billion of net cash and substantial liquidity. The concern is dilution: shares outstanding reached 143.6 million, up about 5% from a year earlier, while stock compensation totaled roughly $198 million in the first half alone. There are no meaningful buybacks or dividends offsetting that issuance.

What could change the storyFaster oncology growth could justify more value, while stalled cash conversion would expose the rich valuation.

The strongest bull case is that Signatera becomes a widely used standard for cancer monitoring, sustaining growth near current levels while gross margins remain around the mid-60s and operating expenses grow much more slowly. Regulatory approvals and expanded reimbursement support that path. The bear case is that growth slows before cash margins mature, particularly because research spending and stock compensation remain high. At the present valuation, investors appear to require many years of strong double-digit growth plus a large improvement in free cash flow; merely meeting current guidance offers limited valuation support.

AI: News

Revenue outlook raisedNatera delivered another high-growth quarter and raised annual sales guidance, strengthening expectations for continued expansion.

On August 6, Natera reported second-quarter revenue of $752.8 million, up 37.7%, while oncology test volume rose 57.2%. Management raised its 2026 revenue range to $2.85-$2.91 billion, a $100 million increase at the midpoint. The shares rose about 21% on the next trading day. That timing strongly suggests the results influenced expectations, although the price move cannot be attributed solely to the earnings release.

Transplant coverage expandsBroader Medicare-related coverage could increase routine Prospera testing across kidney, heart, and lung transplant patients.

Natera said on July 16 that a finalized MolDx coverage policy would materially expand surveillance testing for Prospera, effective August 30. The policy includes up to six kidney tests in year one and 12 heart or lung tests, followed by additional testing in years two and three. Wider reimbursement can turn clinically useful testing into billable recurring volume, making this important for Natera’s smaller organ-health franchise even though the exact revenue contribution remains uncertain.

Signatera clears EuropeEuropean certification widened Signatera's regulatory reach and lowered barriers to future clinical and commercial expansion.

On July 9, Signatera received certification under the European Union's stricter diagnostic-device rules across multiple cancer settings. Natera said the certification reduces regulatory work for new clinical trials and allows continued EU availability beyond the previous regulatory transition. This does not guarantee reimbursement or rapid European revenue, but it removes an important regulatory obstacle and strengthens the long-term case that Natera can extend its oncology platform beyond the United States.

Japan approves SignateraJapan approved Signatera for colorectal cancer, creating another sizable market if reimbursement follows as planned.

On June 24, Japanese regulators approved Signatera for colorectal cancer in the post-surgery setting, making it Japan's first approved molecular residual disease test. Natera expects a commercial launch by year-end, subject to final pricing. The company noted more than 150,000 colorectal cancer diagnoses annually in Japan. The approval therefore expands the addressable market, but its financial value depends on reimbursement, physician adoption, testing frequency, and Natera's ability to build commercial scale locally.

Loading local price history

Revenue

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
Revenue	$2.31B	$1.70B	$1.08B	$820.2M	$625.5M	$391.0M	$302.3M	$257.7M	$209.6M	$212.5M	$190.4M	$159.3M	$55.2M
Gross profit	$1.49B	$1.02B	$492.7M	$364.0M	—	—	—	$99.6M	$74.1M	$78.0M	$77.5M	$80.9M	$17.9M
Gross margin	64.75%	60.30%	45.52%	44.37%	—	—	—	38.65%	35.36%	36.71%	40.72%	50.78%	32.44%
Research & development	$624.1M	$404.1M	$320.7M	$316.4M	$264.2M	$100.0M	$51.4M	$51.4M	$50.1M	$41.9M	$27.7M	$17.3M	$11.6M
Operating expenses	$2.62B	$1.92B	$1.53B	$1.36B	$1.09B	$607.3M	$418.6M	$372.3M	$345.0M	$313.6M	$250.2M	$158.6M	$80.4M
Operating income	−$309.9M	−$222.3M	−$446.2M	−$541.0M	−$468.2M	−$216.3M	−$116.3M	−$114.6M	−$135.3M	−$101.0M	−$59.8M	$665,000	−$25.3M
Operating margin	−13.44%	−13.10%	−41.22%	−65.96%	−74.85%	−55.31%	−38.46%	−44.49%	−64.56%	−47.55%	−31.43%	0.42%	−45.80%
EBITDA	−$268.1M	−$191.3M	−$422.1M	−$524.3M	−$456.9M	−$207.7M	−$108.6M	−$107.1M	−$128.2M	−$94.9M	−$54.3M	$5.8M	−$22.7M
EBITDA margin	−11.63%	−11.27%	−38.99%	−63.93%	−73.05%	−53.11%	−35.91%	−41.58%	−61.16%	−44.64%	−28.53%	3.65%	−41.22%
Net income	−$208.2M	−$190.4M	−$434.8M	−$547.8M	−$471.7M	−$229.7M	−$124.8M	−$128.2M	−$137.6M	−$100.3M	−$70.3M	−$5.2M	−$37.1M
Net profit margin	−9.03%	−11.22%	−40.16%	−66.79%	−75.42%	−58.76%	−41.29%	−49.74%	−65.65%	−47.21%	−36.92%	−3.23%	−67.26%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$1.52	-$1.53	-$3.78	-$5.57	-$5.21	-$2.84	-$1.79	-$2.22	-$2.58	-$1.95	-$2.68	-$1.07	-$9.66
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$1.52	-$1.53	-$3.78	-$5.57	-$5.21	-$2.84	-$1.79	-$2.22	-$2.59	-$1.95	-$2.68	-$1.07	-$9.66

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

8.96%of listed shares

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO12.87M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of NTRA
Holder	% owned
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	8.96%12.87M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	7.60%10.91M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	6.28%9.02M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.34%6.23M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.03%5.78M shares
FMR LLC	3.80%5.45M shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	2.81%4.04M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.55%3.66M shares
Duquesne Family Office LLC	2.22%3.19M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.91%2.75M shares
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC	1.90%2.73M shares
Castle Hook Partners LP	1.81%2.6M shares
COATUE MANAGEMENT LLC	1.74%2.51M shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.63%2.34M shares
Rabinowitz Matthew	≈1.59%2.28M shares
FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	1.54%2.22M shares
MASSACHUSETTS FINANCIAL SERVICES CO /MA/	1.37%1.97M shares
NORGES BANK	1.27%1.83M shares
FRED ALGER MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.24%1.78M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.20%1.72M shares

Percentages use 143.61M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)811$492.81M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	RABINOWITZ DANIELSEC. AND CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	11.1K	$253.39	$2.82M	189.1K
Jun 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	RABINOWITZ DANIELSEC. AND CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	5.1K	$252.31	$1.28M	200.2K
Jun 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	RABINOWITZ DANIELSEC. AND CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	1.2K	$251.60	$301.9K	205.3K
Jun 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	RABINOWITZ DANIELSEC. AND CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	SellCommon Stock	16.2K	$250.25	$4.06M	206.5K
Jun 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	ROSENMAN HERMDirector	SellCommon Stock	16.5K	$250.00	$4.13M	4.3K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Community posts

View community

It’s quiet here.

No posts about NTRA yet. Start the conversation.

Write the first post

Natera, Inc. (NTRA)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Owners

Insider buys & sells

Community posts

It’s quiet here.