Central North Airport Group (OMAB)

Price$99.72Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 10:43 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look reasonably priced, with strong cash generation offset by slower traffic and heavier investment.

At the observed Nasdaq quote, the shares trade at about sixteen times trailing earnings and carry a dividend yield near 5%. The earnings multiple is below 2025’s roughly eighteen times but sits inside the company’s 2021-2025 range of roughly fourteen to nineteen times. That is a modest discount, not a distressed valuation. Given slower 2026 passenger growth, rising debt and a Ps.16.0 billion required investment program through 2030, the discount looks largely earned. That balance supports Fair-priced rather than a clear bargain or clear overvaluation.

Big pictureOMA recovered strongly from travel shocks, but recent passenger growth has slowed markedly.

From 2019 through 2024, revenue rose from Ps.8.5 billion to Ps.15.1 billion, net income from Ps.3.2 billion to Ps.4.9 billion, and operating cash flow from Ps.3.7 billion to Ps.6.2 billion. The 2020 collapse—net income fell about two thirds—shows the business is still tied to travel cycles. More recently, 2025 passenger traffic grew 8.5% and adjusted operating cash earnings rose 12.1%, while second-quarter 2026 traffic grew only 0.4% but net income still rose 10.2%.

Business strengthCash generation, stable share count, and manageable debt support a durable shareholder-return story.

At year-end 2024, debt was Ps.10.7 billion and cash Ps.1.7 billion, leaving net debt—debt minus cash—near Ps.9.0 billion, about 1.0 times 2024 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. Shares outstanding were unchanged from 2022 through 2024 and about 1% lower than 2019, so dilution has not been a problem. Dividends used about 68% of 2024 operating cash flow. The trade-off is rising leverage and large airport investment commitments, including Ps.16.0 billion for 2026-2030.

What could change the storyFaster traffic growth would create upside, while flat demand and heavy investment could expose downside.

The bull case needs traffic to resume steady growth while OMA keeps converting each passenger into more revenue. July traffic improved 3.9%, including 7.5% international growth, after a nearly flat second quarter. The bear case is that traffic stays weak while the 2026-2030 investment program absorbs cash and recently refinanced debt keeps interest costs high. At about sixteen times recent earnings, the market appears to require profits to keep growing by roughly 5% a year; stronger traffic would create upside, while flat earnings could justify a materially lower valuation.

AI: News

Second-quarter earnings held upProfit grew despite almost flat passenger traffic, showing pricing and cost control still have power.

On July 27, OMA reported second-quarter 2026 passenger growth of just 0.4%, yet aeronautical plus non-aeronautical revenue rose 5.4%, adjusted operating cash earnings rose 6.2% to Ps.2.72 billion, and net income increased 10.2% to Ps.1.48 billion. Operating cash flow was Ps.1.76 billion against Ps.949 million of capital and major-maintenance investment. The ADS rose 3.3% on July 28, though timing alone does not prove the results caused that move.

Debt maturity resetOMA refinanced near-term obligations with longer debt, reducing rollover risk but locking in meaningful interest costs.

On July 16, OMA placed Ps.3.0 billion of notes with 3.2 times demand. Ps.420 million matures in 2029 at a floating benchmark rate plus 0.39 percentage points, while Ps.2.58 billion matures in 2033 at a fixed 9.17% rate. Proceeds prepaid Ps.1.7 billion of short-term bank debt and Ps.640 million of notes due in July, with the remainder earmarked for required airport investment and working capital. The refinancing improves maturity structure but does not reduce leverage.

July traffic reacceleratedPassenger growth improved in July, easing concern that second-quarter traffic weakness was becoming persistent.

On August 5, OMA reported July passenger traffic up 3.9% from a year earlier, with domestic traffic up 3.3% and international traffic up 7.5%. That was a meaningful step up from the second quarter’s 0.4% growth. Stronger volumes can lift regulated airport fees and commercial spending without requiring costs to rise at the same pace. One month is not enough to establish a new trend, so sustained autumn traffic growth would matter more than the July reading alone.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	—	$725.1M	$854.5M	$612.9M	$426.0M	$269.6M	$451.8M	$402.3M	$361.3M	—	—
Operating expenses	—	$336.3M	$377.7M	$301.5M	$225.2M	$183.1M	$194.6M	$192.0M	$197.1M	—	—
Operating income	—	$388.9M	$476.8M	$311.5M	$200.8M	$86.5M	$257.3M	$210.2M	$164.1M	—	—
Operating margin	—	53.63%	55.80%	50.81%	47.14%	32.07%	56.94%	52.26%	45.43%	—	—
EBITDA	—	$425.3M	$514.7M	$339.8M	$224.6M	$108.3M	$279.3M	$228.1M	$179.3M	—	—
EBITDA margin	—	58.65%	60.24%	55.43%	52.72%	40.18%	61.81%	56.71%	49.63%	—	—
Net income	—	$237.5M	$296.7M	$201.2M	$139.9M	$55.1M	$171.0M	$145.7M	$108.3M	—	—
Net profit margin	—	32.75%	34.73%	32.82%	32.84%	20.45%	37.85%	36.22%	29.98%	—	—
Basic EPSper basic share	—	$0.61	$0.77	$0.52	$0.36	$0.14	$0.43	$0.37	$0.27	—	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	—	$0.61	$0.77	—	$0.36	$0.14	$0.43	$0.37	$0.27	—	—