Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)

Price$22.98Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 04:21 UTC

AI: Undervalued

Price checkThe market price looks modest relative to raised profit guidance, but financing risk still matters.

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is Nasdaq-listed as PGY. Using the latest regular-session close and roughly 83 million ordinary shares, its equity value is about $1.8 billion. Against management’s 2026 GAAP net-income guidance of $155 million to $180 million, that is roughly 10–12 times earnings, a restrained multiple for current growth. The discount is not free: Pagaya still carries expensive debt and meaningful exposure to credit and securitization markets.

Big pictureFast network growth and improving profitability are offset by thinner fee economics and capital-market sensitivity.

Pagaya’s AI-driven platform helps lending partners approve and fund consumer credit, then connects those assets with institutional capital. Q2 network volume rose 33% and total revenue plus other income rose 19%, showing scale. However, fee revenue less production costs as a share of network volume fell to 4.2% from 4.8%. That decline matters because it is a simple measure of economics earned per dollar of network activity, and it shows how funding costs, mix, and securitization pricing can pressure margins.

Business strengthProfit, operating cash flow, and available liquidity improved, though required loan investments remain substantial.

Q2 GAAP net income reached $45 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 43% year over year. First-half operating cash flow—cash generated before investing and financing—was $117.9 million, and cash plus restricted cash ended June at $304.4 million; the $132 million revolver was undrawn. But Pagaya also had about $875 million of secured borrowings, exchangeable notes, and long-term debt, including senior notes costing 8.875%. It purchased $496 million of loan and securities investments in the half, so operating cash is not equivalent to freely distributable cash.

What could change the storyUpside depends on guidance delivery and durable funding; credit stress or dilution could erase the discount.

The bull case is that 2026 profit guidance is achieved, securitization markets stay open, fee economics stabilize, and operating leverage keeps converting volume growth into cash earnings. Management has also repurchased small amounts of its 2030 notes below face value, a sensible use of cash when liquidity permits. The bear case is higher credit losses, wider funding spreads, or weaker ABS demand. Dilution also deserves attention: share-based compensation continues, Class A shares rose during the first half, and diluted share counts exceed basic counts.

AI: News

Q2 profit hits recordRecord Q2 profit and volume prompted management to raise full-year net-income guidance.

On July 30, Pagaya reported $45 million of GAAP net income, $387 million of total revenue and other income, and $3.5 billion of network volume. It raised 2026 GAAP net-income guidance to $155 million–$180 million. Operating leverage was strong, with adjusted EBITDA rising faster than revenue. The caution is monetization: fee revenue less production costs as a percentage of network volume fell to 4.2% from 4.8%, partly because funding costs remained elevated.

Personal-loan ABS reaches recordAn upsized personal-loan securitization showed strong institutional demand and expanded Pagaya’s 2026 funding capacity.

On July 27, Pagaya closed an upsized $900 million AAA-rated personal-loan ABS, its largest personal-loan transaction since 2022. The deal brought 2026 issuance to a record $7.5 billion and included 37 investors, with new participants joining the platform. Strong demand supports Pagaya’s funding model because loans can be financed through institutional securitizations rather than held entirely on its balance sheet. The risk is cyclicality: weaker credit or wider spreads could reduce economics or funding capacity.

Fitch outlook turns positiveFitch improved Pagaya’s outlook, but its B ratings still signal elevated credit risk.

On July 23, Pagaya said Fitch had revised its rating outlook to Positive from Stable while affirming the company and senior unsecured debt at B. Fitch cited stronger profitability, lower leverage, and better interest coverage, with an upgrade possible if gains persist. For equity holders, the message is mixed: balance-sheet trends are improving, but a B rating still sits below investment grade, so refinancing costs and market access remain important valuation risks.

Auto funding scales upPagaya’s largest auto securitization yet reinforced rapid growth in a newer lending vertical.

On July 16, Pagaya closed a $750 million auto ABS, its largest auto transaction to date and its fourth fully pre-funded auto deal of 2026. Pre-funded auto ABS volume for the year reached $2.25 billion. This supports the view that the auto vertical is scaling and that institutional funding is broadening beyond personal loans. The offsetting risk is execution: faster auto growth increases the importance of underwriting discipline, credit performance, and continued investor appetite.

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Revenue

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2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2020

2021

2022

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Revenue	$1.26B	$1.00B	$772.8M	$685.4M	$445.9M	$91.7M
Gross profit	$512.2M	$406.9M	$263.9M	$234.3M	$213.5M	$42.7M
Gross margin	40.61%	40.51%	34.14%	34.19%	47.89%	46.50%
Research & development	$75.2M	$76.6M	$74.4M	$150.9M	$66.2M	$12.3M
Operating expenses	$248.3M	$340.1M	$288.3M	$485.8M	$219.4M	$21.4M
Operating income	$263.8M	$66.8M	−$24.4M	−$251.5M	−$5.8M	$21.3M
Operating margin	20.92%	6.65%	−3.16%	−36.69%	−1.30%	23.17%
EBITDA	$293.9M	$95.6M	−$5.3M	−$245.2M	−$5.0M	$21.5M
EBITDA margin	23.30%	9.52%	−0.68%	−35.78%	−1.12%	23.48%
Net income	$81.4M	−$401.4M	−$128.4M	−$302.3M	−$91.2M	$14.5M
Net profit margin	6.45%	−39.96%	−16.62%	−44.11%	−20.44%	15.77%
Basic EPSper basic share	$0.99	-$5.66	-$2.14	-$8.22	-$8.25	$4.32
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.93	-$5.66	-$2.14	-$8.22	-$8.25	$2.88

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

3.19%of listed shares

FRONTIER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO LLC2.3M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of PGY
Holder	% owned
FRONTIER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CO LLC	3.19%2.3M shares
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC	3.17%2.29M shares
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	2.62%1.89M shares
Aquamarine Financial (Cayman) Ltd	2.46%1.77M shares
Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC	2.28%1.65M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	1.75%1.26M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	1.53%1.1M shares
HS Investments IV Ltd	1.52%1.1M shares
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP	1.46%1.05M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	1.32%948.53K shares
UBS Group AG	1.09%784.49K shares
BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL MARKETS	1.05%759.73K shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	0.90%649.79K shares
Empowered Funds, LLC	0.86%623.02K shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	0.82%591.95K shares
BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	0.82%588.31K shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	0.81%585.96K shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	0.80%575.19K shares
Krubiner Gal	≈0.77%555.91K shares
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.	0.74%535.78K shares

Percentages use 72.05M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$749.2K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)105$48.89M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 25, 2026Form 4	Vieira CoryChief Accounting Officer	SellClass A Ordinary Share	1.5K	$15.83	$23.1K	21.0K
Jun 25, 2026Form 4	DAS SANJIVPresident	SellClass A Ordinary Share	14.0K	$15.83	$221.6K	165.5K
Jun 24, 2026Form 4	Krubiner GalChief Executive Officer	BuyClass A Ordinary Share	16.2K	$15.43	$250.4K	555.9K
Jun 22, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Rosen TamiDirector	SellClass A Ordinary Share	9.9K	$15.20	$151.1K	37.5K
Jun 12, 2026Form 4	Perros EvangelosOther	SellClass A Ordinary Share	11.6K	$16.23	$187.6K	131.2K