Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares price in years of exceptional growth and leave little room for disappointment.

Nasdaq’s official close on August 14 was $173.97. Multiplying by 2.403 billion outstanding shares gives about $418 billion of market value. That equals roughly 51 times management’s $8.154 billion midpoint for 2026 revenue, 139 times $3.02 billion of net income over the latest four quarters, and 124 times $3.36 billion of free cash flow—cash left after operations and equipment spending. Even allowing for extraordinary growth, these ratios require years of near-flawless expansion. The missing safety cushion supports an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureFast growth now produces real profit and cash, though contracts can make demand uneven.

Reported revenue rose 56% from $2.87 billion in 2024 to $4.48 billion in 2025, then grew 93% from a year earlier to $1.94 billion in the June 2026 quarter. That quarter produced a 47% operating profit margin and $1.22 billion of operating cash. American commercial revenue grew 149%, while American government revenue grew 90%, showing broad strength. However, government budgets, large awards and cancellation rights can shift revenue between periods. Today’s valuation assumes the recent acceleration is durable rather than a temporary contract cycle.

Business strengthA debt-free balance sheet protects the business, but employee shares still dilute owners.

Palantir reported $9.2 billion of cash and short-term Treasury investments at June 2026 with no debt. Current assets of $11.10 billion covered current liabilities of $1.54 billion more than seven times, providing strong downside protection for the company itself. Capital needs are modest: equipment spending was only $42 million over the latest four quarters. Capital allocation is less owner-friendly. Employee share compensation totaled $684 million in 2025, while buybacks were only $75 million; outstanding shares rose 1.3% between June 2025 and June 2026.

What could change the storyThe stock needs rapid growth to persist long after today’s unusually strong demand.

The bull case strengthened when management forecast roughly 82% revenue growth for 2026 and $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow. Continued commercial adoption, government expansion and rising profit margins could reduce today’s valuation quickly. The bear case is mathematical: even $4.6 billion growing 50% annually for five years becomes about $35 billion, still leaving today’s $418 billion market value near 12 times that future cash figure. Slower growth, contract delays or continued dilution would weaken the case. Sustained growth above 40% would materially challenge this verdict.

$173.97 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter growth surgeRevenue nearly doubled, guidance rose, and investors sharply increased the value assigned to future growth.

On August 3, Palantir reported June-quarter revenue of $1.94 billion, up 93% from a year earlier, including 149% growth in American commercial revenue. It raised 2026 revenue guidance to $8.150 billion–$8.158 billion and forecast third-quarter revenue near $2.16 billion. The Associated Press reported that shares surged 29.5% in the following regular session. The timing and scale strongly indicate that better results and guidance drove the repricing, although broader markets also rallied that day.

First-quarter expectations testEarlier record growth still triggered a selloff, showing how demanding investor expectations had become.

On May 4, Palantir reported first-quarter revenue of $1.63 billion, up 85%, with American commercial and government revenue growing 133% and 84%, respectively. It also raised full-year revenue guidance to approximately $7.65 billion. Nevertheless, shares fell about 7% on May 5. Reporting linked the decline to concerns about elevated expectations and possible software disruption from competing artificial-intelligence tools. The reaction does not prove one cause, but it shows that strong reported growth alone was insufficient before August’s larger acceleration.

London contract challengeA blocked police deal exposed political barriers that could limit Palantir’s European government expansion.

On July 9, Reuters reported that Palantir was challenging London authorities over a blocked two-year, £50 million police contract. Authorities said the procurement process lacked proper approval, while Palantir disputed reports that political values influenced the decision. A trial is scheduled for January 2027, and Britain is separately reviewing a £330 million health-service contract. These sums are modest beside projected 2026 revenue, but the dispute provides concrete evidence that political resistance and procurement rules can restrict European government growth. Any stock-price attribution remains uncertain.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Revenue	$4.48B	$2.87B	$2.23B	$1.91B	$1.54B	$1.09B	$742.6M	$595.4M
Gross profit	$3.69B	$2.30B	$1.79B	$1.50B	$1.20B	$740.1M	$500.2M	$430.0M
Research & development	$557.7M	$507.9M	$404.6M	$359.7M	$387.5M	$560.7M	$305.6M	$285.5M
Operating expenses	$2.27B	$1.99B	$1.67B	$1.66B	$1.61B	$1.91B	$1.08B	$1.05B
Operating income	$1.41B	$310.4M	$120.0M	−$161.2M	−$411.0M	−$1.17B	−$576.4M	−$623.4M
EBITDAderived	$1.44B	$342.0M	$153.3M	−$138.7M	−$396.1M	−$1.16B	−$564.2M	−$609.5M
Net income	$1.63B	$462.2M	$209.8M	−$373.7M	−$520.4M	−$1.17B	−$579.6M	−$580.0M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$0.69	$0.21	$0.10	-$0.18	-$0.27	-$1.19	-$1.02	-$1.11
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$0.63	$0.19	$0.09	-$0.18	-$0.27	-$1.20	-$1.02	-$1.17

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$1.16M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)846$5.33B disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Moore Alexander D.Director	SellClass A Common Stock	7.0K	$134.44	$941.1K	1.11M
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Moore Alexander D.Director	SellClass A Common Stock	4.0K	$133.81	$535.2K	1.12M
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Moore Alexander D.Director	SellClass A Common Stock	500	$132.55	$66.3K	1.12M
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Moore Alexander D.Director	SellClass A Common Stock	3.6K	$131.54	$473.5K	1.12M
Jun 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Moore Alexander D.Director	SellClass A Common Stock	900	$130.48	$117.4K	1.13M

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells