PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)

Price$39.56Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Undervalued

Price checkThe stock looks undervalued if management delivers its earnings forecast and keeps reducing debt.

Using 39.8 million shares, the market values the equity near $1.47 billion. Management’s revised 2026 reported earnings guidance of $3.82-$4.06 per share implies roughly nine to ten times earnings. Adding about $802 million of net debt gives an enterprise value, meaning equity value plus debt minus cash, near $2.27 billion. That is 6.1-6.4 times management’s $355-$375 million adjusted cash-profit forecast, which excludes interest, tax, depreciation and selected items. The discount supports an undervalued verdict if guidance and debt repayment hold.

Big pictureCash generation is durable, but profits still swing with financially stressed customers.

Revenue barely grew from $2.34 billion in 2023 to $2.41 billion in 2025, while operating income moved from $219 million to $207 million. Still, operating cash flow stayed positive in every supplied year, and cash left after capital spending was about $195 million, $130 million and $325 million in 2023-2025. First-half 2026 operating cash flow held near $278 million. The weak spot is customer credit: Progressive Leasing’s second-quarter write-offs rose to 8.4% of revenue, from 7.5%.

Business strengthFast debt repayment and new growth engines offset a still-heavy balance sheet.

Debt-funded Purchasing Power changed the risk profile: quarter-end gross debt was $893.7 million against $85.2 million of cash. Yet PROG had repaid $304.9 million since closing and reduced its net leverage measure to 1.7 times. Four’s purchase volume rose 110.6%, while Purchasing Power’s rose 15.2%, improving diversification. Buybacks cut outstanding shares from 67.7 million in 2020 to 39.8 million, but 2025 stock-based compensation was $28.8 million against $51.8 million spent repurchasing shares; some repurchases therefore offset employee dilution.

What could change the storyGrowth and repayment could unlock value, while rising customer losses could erase it.

The bull case strengthens if Four sustains rapid growth, Purchasing Power becomes profitable after interest, and net leverage approaches the 1.5-times target while reported earnings reach $3.82-$4.06 per share. The bear case appears if Progressive Leasing write-offs remain above 8% or its two large retail partners, each generating over 10% of consolidated revenue in 2025, weaken. The current valuation needs neither high growth nor a flawless consumer, but it does require stable cash collection and continued debt reduction.

AI: News

Stronger second-quarter outlookPROG raised its annual outlook after growth businesses outweighed weakness in its main leasing operation.

On July 29, PROG reported second-quarter revenue of $719.7 million, up 22.3%, while reported earnings per share were nearly unchanged. Earnings excluding selected acquisition and other items rose 19% to $1.19, and management raised its full-year ranges. Financial reporting said the shares nevertheless fell about 5% that afternoon. Timing alone cannot prove why, but Progressive Leasing’s revenue decline and write-offs rising to 8.4% offered clear reasons for caution.

First-quarter earnings surpriseFirst-quarter earnings beat expectations and management raised its outlook, showing early acquisition momentum.

On April 29, first-quarter revenue rose 11.1% to $742.7 million, while earnings excluding selected items reached $1.24 per share versus an analyst estimate near $0.80. The total value of purchases handled grew 54.4%, helped by Four and newly acquired Purchasing Power. Management raised its 2026 adjusted earnings range to $4.40-$4.80 per share. Financial reporting recorded an approximately 9% early share-price rise, although later results have since replaced that guidance.

Purchasing Power acquisitionPurchasing Power added an employer-based channel, but the cash deal sharply increased debt.

PROG completed the $420 million cash acquisition on January 2, adding access to more than seven million employees through over 360 employer relationships. Cash on hand and $260 million of new corporate borrowing funded the purchase; $338.6 million of debt backed only by Purchasing Power receivables also remained. During the first half, the acquired business contributed $237.5 million of revenue but recorded a $7.8 million pretax loss. Its second-quarter adjusted cash profit improved to $10.6 million, making integration progress important.

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Revenue

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Revenue	$2.41B	$2.40B	$2.34B	$2.60B	$2.68B	$2.48B	$2.16B	$2.04B
Operating expenses	$2.21B	$2.20B	$2.12B	$2.41B	$2.34B	$2.21B	$2.14B	$1.88B
Operating income	$206.8M	$194.7M	$218.7M	$185.6M	$333.5M	$271.8M	$27.6M	$156.8M
Operating margin	8.58%	8.12%	9.35%	7.15%	12.45%	10.94%	1.28%	7.70%
EBITDA	$230.8M	$221.1M	$250.0M	$219.5M	$366.8M	$303.6M	$59.0M	$186.2M
EBITDA margin	9.58%	9.21%	10.69%	8.45%	13.70%	12.22%	2.73%	9.14%
Net income	$146.8M	$197.2M	$138.8M	$98.7M	$243.6M	−$61.5M	$31.5M	$196.2M
Net profit margin	6.09%	8.22%	5.93%	3.80%	9.10%	−2.47%	1.45%	9.64%
Basic EPSper basic share	$3.66	$4.63	$3.02	$1.90	$3.69	-$0.91	$0.47	$2.84
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$3.59	$4.53	$2.98	$1.90	$3.67	-$0.90	$0.47	$2.78

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of PRG
Holder	Shares held
BlackRock, Inc.	6.84M
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.51M
STATE STREET CORP	1.73M
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.7M
Allianz Asset Management GmbH	1.49M
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.33M
LSV ASSET MANAGEMENT	1.17M
FMR LLC	1.17M
MORGAN STANLEY	1.05M
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.01M
BREACH INLET CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	923.02K
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP	886.01K
Michaels Steven A	782.88K
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	715.15K
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	697.32K
Azora Capital LP	690.33K
JACOBS LEVY EQUITY MANAGEMENT, INC	682.11K
Bank of New York Mellon Corp	670.02K
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	651.64K
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	649.85K

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys5$881.7K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)11$8.64M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 13, 2025Form 4	Garner BrianChief Financial Officer	BuyCommon Stock	3.5K	$28.93	$101.3K	132.6K
May 12, 2025Form 4	Michaels Steven APresident and CEO	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	1.0K	$29.03	$29.0K	10.0K
May 12, 2025Form 4	Michaels Steven APresident and CEO	BuyCommon Stock	14.0K	$29.03	$406.4K	559.6K
Feb 26, 2025Form 4	Sheu Caroline Sio-ChinDirector	BuyCommon Stock	1.6K	$28.01	$46.2K	18.3K
Feb 21, 2025Form 4	CURLING DOUGLAS CDirector	BuyCommon Stock	10.0K	$29.88	$298.8K	45.9K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)

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