Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)

Price$15.74Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 13:38 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because today’s valuation assumes a large jump from losses to durable cash profits.

At the observed quote, about 1.45 billion shares imply roughly $24.1 billion of equity value. Adding $4.44 billion of debt and subtracting $5.31 billion of cash and short-term investments gives about $23.2 billion of business value, nearly 3.9 times trailing $5.88 billion revenue. Free cash flow, meaning cash left after running and investing in the business, was negative $1.92 billion in the first half. If investors eventually paid $15 for each $1 of annual free cash flow, today’s value would require roughly $1.6 billion annually.

Big pictureRivian is growing again, but its cash burn and second-half delivery challenge still make the story fragile.

Revenue rose to $5.39 billion in 2025, while gross profit improved to $144 million from a $1.20 billion loss in 2024. Yet Rivian still lost $3.65 billion and burned about $2.49 billion of free cash flow in 2025. By June 2026, cash plus short-term investments were $5.31 billion against $4.44 billion of debt. Assets expected to turn into cash within a year were $7.62 billion versus $3.62 billion of near-term liabilities. Vehicle demand is cyclical, and guidance requires 42,441–47,441 second-half deliveries versus 22,559 in the first half.

Business strengthPositive gross profit and software revenue are real advances, though vehicle economics still need much more improvement.

Second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $1.66 billion and gross profit was $179 million, but the automotive segment still lost $36 million at the gross-profit line. Software and services produced $215 million of gross profit on $515 million revenue, a 42% margin, although 60% of that revenue came from the Volkswagen joint venture. With no dividends or buybacks, capital is going to R2, factories, software, and autonomy. That runway has diluted owners: shares rose from 1.131 billion at 2024 year-end to about 1.448 billion by July 2026, roughly 28%.

What could change the storyR2 scale and software margins could justify optimism, while more dilution or weak demand would break it.

The bull case needs R2 to turn Rivian from a niche premium maker into a higher-volume producer while software stays meaningfully profitable. A stronger thesis would show automotive gross profit staying positive without regulatory-credit help, 2026 deliveries reaching at least the 65,000 to 70,000 target, and quarterly free-cash-flow burn falling well below the recent $849 million. The bear case strengthens if second-half deliveries miss, the $108 million quarterly credit contribution fades without replacement, or fresh equity is needed again. Those outcomes would make today’s valuation assumptions too demanding.

AI: News

R2 customer deliveriesRivian started customer deliveries of R2, opening the lower-priced model that carries most of its volume-growth hopes.

On June 9, 2026, Rivian began public customer deliveries of the R2 from its Normal, Illinois plant after employee deliveries started in April. The launch matters because R2 targets a much broader market than Rivian’s premium R1 vehicles and is the central volume bridge to the planned Georgia factory. Initial versions remain relatively expensive, so the investment case still depends on successful lower-priced configurations and efficient manufacturing. A same-day stock move cannot be cleanly attributed to the launch alone.

Delivery outlook raisedStrong second-quarter deliveries led Rivian to raise its full-year target, confirming early demand but raising execution pressure.

On July 2, Rivian reported 12,194 second-quarter deliveries, above its prior 9,000 to 11,000 outlook, and raised 2026 guidance from 62,000–67,000 vehicles to 65,000–70,000. Reuters reported the shares jumped more than 10% after the announcement. The business implication is double-edged: stronger R1, van, and early R2 demand supports revenue growth, but the new target requires 42,441–47,441 deliveries in the second half, roughly 88%–110% more than the first half.

Large equity offeringRivian raised fresh cash for Georgia expansion, but the new shares materially diluted existing owners.

Rivian announced a public stock sale on July 6 and priced 75 million shares at $15.50 on July 7; underwriters exercised another 11.25 million-share option. The company said net proceeds were about $1.32 billion, partly to meet funding requirements tied to Department of Energy financing for its Georgia plant. Reuters reported a 9% after-hours drop after the initial announcement, and the next regular session fell much more. The reaction is consistent with dilution concerns, though market moves can reflect several factors.

Profit quality questionedSecond-quarter sales and gross profit improved sharply, yet investors focused on weak vehicle margins and continued cash burn.

On July 30, Rivian reported $1.66 billion of revenue, up 27%, and $179 million of gross profit. However, automotive gross profit was still negative $36 million, while software and services generated $215 million; 60% of that segment’s revenue came from the Volkswagen joint venture. Free cash flow was negative $849 million. Barron’s reported the shares reversed an initial rise and fell nearly 10% the next session, with concerns centered on profit quality and the demanding second-half ramp.

Loading local price history

Revenue

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$5.39B	$4.97B	$4.43B	$1.66B	$55.0M	$0	$0
Gross profit	$144.0M	−$1.20B	−$2.03B	−$3.12B	−$465.0M	$0	$0
Gross margin	2.67%	−24.14%	−45.78%	−188.36%	−845.45%	—	—
Research & development	$1.67B	$1.61B	$2.00B	$1.94B	$1.85B	$766.0M	$301.0M
Operating expenses	$3.73B	$3.49B	$3.71B	$3.73B	$3.75B	$1.02B	$409.0M
Operating income	−$3.58B	−$4.69B	−$5.74B	−$6.86B	−$4.22B	−$1.02B	−$409.0M
Operating margin	−66.55%	−94.35%	−129.43%	−413.51%	−7,672.73%	—	—
EBITDA	−$2.80B	−$3.66B	−$4.80B	−$6.20B	−$4.02B	−$992.0M	−$402.0M
EBITDA margin	−52.00%	−73.60%	−108.30%	−374.19%	−7,314.55%	—	—
Net income	−$3.65B	−$4.75B	−$5.43B	−$6.75B	−$4.69B	−$1.02B	−$426.0M
Net profit margin	−67.68%	−95.51%	−122.51%	−407.24%	−8,523.64%	—	—
Basic EPSper basic share	-$3.07	-$4.69	-$5.74	-$7.40	-$22.98	-$10.09	-$4.35
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$3.07	-$4.69	-$5.74	-$7.40	-$22.98	-$10.09	-$4.35

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈15.45%of listed shares

Volkswagen US-Holding, Inc. / VOLKSWAGEN AG209.77M shares · Apr 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of RIVN
Holder	% owned
Volkswagen US-Holding, Inc. / VOLKSWAGEN AG	≈15.45%209.77M shares
AMAZON COM INC	11.66%158.36M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	4.15%56.42M shares
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	3.18%43.21M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.89%39.27M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.57%34.84M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	1.67%22.65M shares
STATE STREET CORP	1.65%22.4M shares
Slate Path Capital LP	1.62%21.98M shares
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	1.53%20.83M shares
Uber Technologies, Inc	1.44%19.55M shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	1.41%19.18M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.18%16.07M shares
UBS AM, a distinct business unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC	0.96%13.01M shares
NORGES BANK	0.86%11.62M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	0.85%11.5M shares
Capital World Investors	0.82%11.12M shares
UBS Group AG	0.80%10.87M shares
FMR LLC	0.63%8.55M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.60%8.13M shares

Percentages use 1.36B shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys6$1.00B disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)55$26.35M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 3, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	McDonough ClaireChief Financial Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	8.0K	$18.00	$144.4K	879.0K
May 29, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	McDonough ClaireChief Financial Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	8.0K	$16.00	$128.4K	887.0K
May 28, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Scaringe Robert JChief Executive Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	34.8K	$15.00	$522.3K	922.3K
May 21, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	McDonough ClaireChief Financial Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	7.6K	$14.00	$106.4K	895.0K
May 18, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	McDonough ClaireChief Financial Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	5.5K	$13.43	$74.5K	902.6K