Sigma Lithium Corp (SGML)

Price$12.39Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 14:48 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because today's business does not yet support their valuation.

At the observed quote, 112.1 million June shares imply a market value near $1.07 billion. Using the supplied $268 million of debt and $17 million of cash, enterprise value—share value plus net borrowings—is about $1.32 billion. That is roughly 51 times the $26 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization produced over four quarters, or 27 times an annualized strong second quarter. Trailing cash left after running and investing was no more than $24 million. The valuation already assumes a much larger, consistently profitable operation.

Big pictureThe recovery is real, but one strong quarter does not make cash durable.

Revenue rose from $42.3 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $54.7 million in the second, while operating income stayed near $13 million. Second-quarter operating cash flow reached $29.9 million. Yet the latest four quarters still produced a $27.6 million net loss and only $37.8 million of operating cash. After at least $13.8 million of mine and equipment investment, no more than $24 million remained. In 2025, revenue fell 27% and gross profit fell 42%, demonstrating the business's sensitivity to lithium prices, sales timing, and mine use.

Business strengthBetter mine performance is offset by little cash, heavy obligations, and more shares.

Sigma produced 35,000 tonnes in the second quarter, 6% above guidance, while recovering 70% of the lithium contained in processed ore. However, June cash was only $17 million, against $267 million of obligations due within a year and $92 million of resources expected to be used or collected within a year. The supplied data records $268 million of debt; the company's filing uses a narrower $136 million measure, creating reconciliation uncertainty. Shares increased 7.1% since 2022, and second-quarter share-based employee pay reached $10 million. There were no dividends or buybacks.

What could change the storyExpansion success could justify today's high valuation, while legal or price setbacks could erase it.

The strongest bull case is management's target of 240,000 tonnes over 12 months and 330,000 in 2027 from the first plant. Against the second quarter's realized price of $2,089 per tonne, its $668 ongoing production cost suggests strong potential cash generation. The bear case is dependence on one mine that recently faced two regulatory challenges. A second plant is estimated to cost $107 million, potentially requiring more debt or shares. Evidence would improve with the targeted output and recurring free cash flow—cash left after running and investing—above $100 million; renewed stoppages or lithium prices approaching costs would weaken it.

AI: News

Production Beat GuidanceSecond-quarter production beat guidance, supporting the case that mine upgrades are working.

On July 9, Sigma reported producing 35,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate, 6% above its 33,000-tonne guidance. The processing plant recovered 70% of lithium from its ore and achieved an approximately 20% product yield. Those figures supported management's planned 240,000-tonne annual pace and suggested its equipment and mine-plan upgrades were improving output. The subsequent regulatory interruption means that production rate still needs confirmation over a longer uninterrupted period.

Quarterly Results ImprovedThe second quarter showed stronger sales and cash generation, though reported profit stayed weak.

Results released August 14 showed revenue rising to $54.7 million from $42.3 million in the previous quarter. Reported operating income was $13.0 million and operating cash flow was $29.9 million, but the company still lost $2.6 million after all expenses. Share-based employee pay of $10 million weighed on reported profit. Management's adjusted earnings margin excluded some costs, so the supplied standardized figures provide a more cautious measure of repeatable performance.

Operations RestartedOperations restarted after an environmental settlement, but regulatory disruption remains a serious risk.

Mining and plant activity had been partly suspended from the week of July 17 while Sigma negotiated with Minas Gerais authorities. On August 21, the company said both were fully operating after signing an adjustment agreement. Sigma accepted up to $540,000 of fines and estimated $1 million of environmental work. Sales of material recovered from old tailings continued during the pause. The restart protected near-term output, although the interruption demonstrated how permitting disputes can halt the company's only producing complex.

Court Challenged LicensesA federal ruling challenged mine licenses, creating fresh uncertainty around Sigma's only producing asset.

Reuters reported on September 6 that a federal judge ordered Sigma's environmental licenses and mining activities suspended while an independent expert assesses the project's distance from a protected traditional community. Sigma said September 7 that it had not been formally notified, disputed the ruling, and continued operating. The shares fell 15.8% in the next trading session. That timing is consistent with heightened legal concern, but it does not prove the ruling alone caused the move. The final legal and operating effects remain uncertain.

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Revenue

2024

2025

Net income

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Revenue	$110.0M	$151.4M	—	—	—	—
Gross profit	$18.4M	$31.6M	—	$0	—	—
Gross margin	16.75%	20.90%	—	—	—	—
Research & development	—	—	—	—	$975,670.97	—
Operating expenses	$60.9M	$68.3M	$85.2M	$95.3M	—	—
Operating income	−$42.5M	−$36.7M	−$18.2M	−$95.3M	—	—
Operating margin	−38.62%	−24.26%	—	—	—	—
EBITDA	−$40.5M	−$23.3M	—	−$93.4M	—	—
EBITDA margin	−36.82%	−15.40%	—	—	—	—
Net income	−$50.2M	−$51.4M	−$38.2M	—	—	—
Net profit margin	−45.62%	−33.96%	—	—	—	—
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.45	-$0.46	-$0.26	-$0.93	—	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.45	-$0.46	-$0.26	-$0.93	—	—

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of SGML
Holder	Shares held
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	4.26M
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	3.23M
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.	3.17M
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	3.06M
BlackRock, Inc.	2.35M
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC	1.74M
Handelsbanken Fonder AB	1.5M
HRT FINANCIAL LP	1.49M
JUPITER ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD	1.36M
KEYSTONE INVESTORS PTE LTD	1.3M
MORGAN STANLEY	1.21M
Kailix Advisors LLC	1.15M
Dayah Capital LLC	823.79K
L1 Capital Pty Ltd	767.43K
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	559.51K
Invesco Ltd.	554.37K
STATE STREET CORP	548.64K
MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd.	484.15K
UBS Group AG	392.08K
SIR Capital Management, L.P.	375.79K

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Sigma Lithium Corp (SGML)

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