Sasol Ltd (SSL)

Price$14.34Cached quoteAs of 2026-10-06 19:10 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because cheap earnings multiples offset unreliable cash and heavy debt.

At the observed quote, the one-for-one American depositary share trades at about 9.7–10.8 times Sasol’s expected 2026 earnings per share of R17.50–R19.50, or roughly 4.7–5.2 times headline earnings of R36–R40. Headline earnings remove some large unusual items such as asset write-downs. FY2025 free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was about R13.0 billion, implying roughly an 11% cash yield; the five-year average was nearer 9%. Today’s valuation therefore needs sustained annual free cash flow around R12 billion, which is plausible but not proven.

Big pictureSasol’s cash generation recovered, but history shows profits swing sharply with energy and chemical markets.

FY2025 revenue fell 9% to R249.1 billion, yet net income recovered to R6.8 billion from a R44.3 billion loss. Operating cash flow rose to R38.3 billion while capital spending fell to R25.3 billion, producing about R13.0 billion of free cash flow versus roughly zero in FY2024. Durability is the issue: 2021–2025 free cash flow ranged from slightly negative to R18.1 billion, and operating income ranged from a R27.3 billion loss to R61.4 billion profit. The preliminary 2026 rebound was helped by higher oil prices, refining margins and volumes.

Business strengthDebt is falling and dilution looks modest, but shareholders still rank behind balance-sheet repair.

FY2025 cash was R41.1 billion against R103.3 billion of debt, leaving net debt—debt minus cash—of R62.3 billion, improved from R72.4 billion a year earlier and R155.0 billion in 2020. At December 2025, net debt was still about US$3.8 billion, above Sasol’s US$3 billion dividend threshold, so the interim dividend stayed suspended. Dividends paid fell to R0.2 billion in FY2025 from R7.9 billion in FY2024. Stock compensation was R0.9 billion and diluted earnings barely trailed basic earnings; no buybacks appear in the supplied history.

What could change the storyA sustained cash surplus would unlock upside; renewed asset write-downs or weaker fuel economics would erase it.

The bull case strengthens if net debt falls below US$3 billion and annual free cash flow stays above roughly R12–R15 billion, potentially restoring dividends and supporting a higher valuation. Secunda reached its highest annual production in five years, while International Chemicals was expected to beat guidance. The bear case is continued capital destruction: Sasol expects R16.8 billion of 2026 asset write-downs, including R7.7 billion of capitalised Secunda costs, plus R3.7 billion at Polyethylene and R3.9 billion in Mozambique. Cash tied up in inventories and other short-term operating needs may also restrain cash generation.

AI: News

Earnings rebound forecastSasol forecast a strong earnings rebound, but fresh asset write-downs and inventory pressure tempered the improvement.

On 5 August 2026, Sasol said earnings per share should rise 65%–84% to R17.50–R19.50. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation—a rough operating-profit measure before financing, tax and major non-cash charges—were expected at R58–R62 billion, up 12%–20%. Sales volumes rose 4%, average Brent oil prices rose 7%, and refining margins more than doubled. Expected asset write-downs totaled R16.8 billion, while inventories were set to restrain cash. New York shares fell about 2% that day; timing alone does not prove causation.

Production beats guidanceStronger production beat guidance, giving investors evidence that Sasol’s operational repair is gaining traction.

In its July 2026 business update, Sasol said Secunda achieved its highest annual production in five years and overall production and sales measures landed within or above guidance. International Chemicals was expected to exceed its US$375–US$450 million adjusted earnings range, while 330 megawatts of renewable power came online during the quarter. Offsetting this, the ORYX gas-to-liquids plant remained offline and cash tied up in inventory finished above guidance. New York shares rose less than 1% on the release date, so attribution to the update is uncertain.

Dividend stays suspendedLower half-year profit and debt above the payout limit kept cash returns to shareholders on hold.

On 23 February 2026, Sasol reported headline earnings per share of R9.27 for the half year, down 34%, as lower oil and chemical prices outweighed better volumes. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell 12% to R21.0 billion, but free cash flow improved to R0.8 billion and net debt was US$3.8 billion. Because that debt exceeded Sasol’s US$3 billion dividend threshold, no interim dividend was declared. The shares were roughly flat that day, showing no clear immediate market verdict.

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Financial statements

	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Revenue	R272.12B	R249.10B	R275.11B	R289.70B	R272.75B	R201.91B	R190.37B	R203.58B	R181.46B	R172.41B	R172.94B
Research & development	—	R1.55B	R1.51B	R1.39B	R1.16B	R1.25B	—	—	—	—	—
Operating expenses	R75.38B	R68.01B	R76.68B	R74.13B	R68.66B	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income	R45.10B	R18.82B	−R27.30B	R21.52B	R61.42B	R16.62B	−R111.93B	R8.43B	R17.75B	R31.70B	R24.24B
Operating margin	16.57%	7.55%	−9.93%	7.43%	22.52%	8.23%	−58.79%	4.14%	9.78%	18.39%	14.02%
EBITDA	R41.46B	R32.82B	−R11.66B	R38.01B	R75.49B	R34.26B	−R89.60B	R26.25B	R34.17B	R47.91B	R40.61B
EBITDA margin	15.24%	13.18%	−4.24%	13.12%	27.68%	16.97%	−47.07%	12.89%	18.83%	27.79%	23.48%
Net income	R12.15B	R7.73B	−R44.24B	R9.33B	R41.67B	R10.53B	−R91.92B	R5.17B	R10.15B	R21.51B	R15.03B
Net profit margin	4.46%	3.10%	−16.08%	3.22%	15.28%	5.22%	−48.28%	2.54%	5.59%	12.48%	8.69%
Basic EPSper basic share	—	ZAR 10.60	-ZAR 69.94	ZAR 14.00	ZAR 62.34	ZAR 14.57	-ZAR 148.49	ZAR 5.50	ZAR 14.26	ZAR 33.36	ZAR 21.66
Diluted EPSper diluted share	—	ZAR 10.54	-ZAR 69.94	ZAR 13.02	ZAR 61.36	ZAR 14.39	-ZAR 148.49	ZAR 5.46	ZAR 14.18	ZAR 33.27	ZAR 21.66

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of SSL
Holder	Shares held
MORGAN STANLEY	2.87M
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.	2.76M
BlackRock, Inc.	2.17M
Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd.	1.86M
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	1.8M
Capital International Investors	1.74M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.73M
Voleon Capital Management LP	1.24M
Capital Wealth Planning, LLC	1.16M
BARCLAYS PLC	1.14M
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP	1.13M
UBS Group AG	1.04M
HENNESSY ADVISORS INC	669K
O'SHAUGHNESSY ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC	579.41K
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	519.96K
Creative Planning	515.36K
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	513.24K
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	402.61K
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	402.39K
SG Americas Securities, LLC	402.32K

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)1$28.7K disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 11, 2026Form 4	Pillay Sarushen DhanapalanEVP, Business Building	SellOrdinary Shares	2.2K	$13.14	$28.7K	16.3K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Sasol Ltd (SSL)

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