Trex Co Inc (TREX)

Price$45.39Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced: quality is real, but today’s valuation already assumes better profits ahead.

Using roughly 101.9 million shares and about $177 million of trailing net income, the company’s market value is about $4.45 billion, or roughly 25 times recent earnings. Trailing free cash flow—cash left after operations and capital spending—is about $208 million from the supplied quarterly history , implying roughly 21 times cash flow. Those are not bargain levels for a housing-linked business, although Trex trades below its much richer multi-year valuation history. The evidence is balanced, so I view the shares as fairly priced rather than clearly cheap or expensive.

Big pictureSales are recovering, but profits remain below recent peaks and cash generation is still uneven.

Trex is growing through a soft repair-and-remodel market, but the income statement still shows strain. 2025 sales rose 2% to $1.17 billion while net income fell 20% to $190 million. In the first half of 2026, sales rose 4.6% to $761 million, yet net income fell about 10% to $123 million; second-quarter gross margin slipped to 37.9% from 40.8%. Cash should improve as 2026 capital spending falls to $100 million-$120 million from about $224 million, but seasonal working capital makes cash flow uneven.

Business strengthTrex has brand and capacity advantages, but buybacks are being funded alongside meaningful borrowing.

The latest filed quarterly report shows $253 million of revolving-credit borrowings and $6.5 million of cash, leaving about $247 million of net borrowing. That is roughly 0.8 times trailing earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a common debt-capacity measure, so leverage is manageable rather than trivial. The supplied history’s roughly $50 million “debt” figure matches lease liabilities in the filing and should not be treated as total borrowing. Shares outstanding fell about 5% year over year; roughly $154 million of first-half buybacks reduced dilution, but they also used capital while debt remained.

What could change the storyThe stock can work if Arkansas lifts margins and distribution changes convert more wood customers.

The bull case is specific: Trex plans to run Arkansas at about 50% capacity by year-end, says the site should become its lowest-cost plant, and estimates each one-point shift from wood decking could add about $80 million of revenue. The bear case is that the distribution reset or softer remodeling demand slows volume while plant ramp costs keep margins near current levels. At roughly 25 times recent earnings, the valuation needs a visible profit recovery; stronger 2027 margins and cash flow would support upside, while stalled margins would make the shares look expensive.

AI: News

Distribution reset and guidance raiseTrex changed national distributors while lifting full-year guidance after preliminary second-quarter sales beat its prior range.

On July 13, Trex named Specialty Building Products its sole national distributor, expanded regional partners, and began exiting Boise Cascade. It also said preliminary second-quarter sales were about $418 million versus prior guidance of $388 million-$403 million and raised full-year sales guidance to $1.215 billion-$1.25 billion, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $335 million-$350 million. The next session closed about 4% lower. That timing may reflect channel-transition concern, but it does not prove the announcement caused the move.

Arkansas ramp and buybackSecond-quarter results confirmed stronger demand, faster Arkansas production, and another large share-repurchase authorization.

On August 4, Trex reported second-quarter sales of $418 million, up 7.8%, and net income of $62 million, down from $76 million a year earlier. It reaffirmed raised full-year guidance, accelerated Arkansas decking production by more than six months, targeted about 50% capacity by year-end, and authorized up to $150 million more buybacks. Shares closed about 5% higher that day and rose another roughly 5% the next session; the timing is consistent with a favorable market read, though it is not proof of causation.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009
Revenue	$1.17B	$1.15B	$1.09B	$1.11B	$1.20B	$880.8M	$745.3M	$684.3M	$565.2M	$479.6M	$440.8M	$391.7M	$342.5M	$307.4M	$266.8M	$317.7M	$272.3M
Gross profit	$460.0M	$501.9M	$450.8M	$404.0M	$460.5M	$359.5M	$306.5M	$294.9M	$243.4M	$187.1M	$154.9M	$140.2M	$98.6M	$84.6M	$62.8M	$72.8M	$80.5M
Gross margin	39.17%	43.59%	41.17%	36.53%	38.47%	40.81%	41.12%	43.10%	43.06%	39.01%	35.13%	35.80%	28.79%	27.52%	23.54%	22.92%	29.57%
Research & development	$4.2M	$3.5M	$3.3M	$500,000	$6.0M	$3.4M	$3.4M	$4.5M	$3.8M	$3.7M	$1.5M	$2.3M	$2.9M	$2.9M	$2.5M	$1.9M	—
Operating expenses	$202.0M	$180.0M	$176.2M	$157.3M	$185.1M	$125.8M	$118.3M	$118.2M	$101.0M	$83.1M	$77.5M	$72.4M	$74.0M	$71.9M	$60.6M	$67.8M	$88.5M
Operating income	$258.0M	$321.9M	$274.6M	$246.7M	$275.4M	$233.6M	$188.2M	$176.7M	$142.4M	$104.0M	$77.4M	$67.8M	$24.7M	$12.7M	$2.2M	$5.1M	−$8.0M
Operating margin	21.97%	27.96%	25.08%	22.31%	23.01%	26.52%	25.25%	25.82%	25.19%	21.67%	17.56%	17.32%	7.20%	4.12%	0.81%	1.59%	−2.93%
EBITDA	$320.9M	$376.6M	$324.8M	$291.0M	$311.3M	$251.6M	$202.2M	$193.3M	$159.2M	$118.5M	$91.8M	$83.0M	$40.9M	$29.7M	$20.3M	$25.8M	$16.5M
EBITDA margin	27.33%	32.70%	29.66%	26.31%	26.01%	28.56%	27.13%	28.24%	28.18%	24.70%	20.82%	21.20%	11.94%	9.66%	7.62%	8.13%	6.06%
Net income	$190.4M	$238.4M	$204.1M	$184.6M	$208.7M	$175.6M	$144.7M	$134.6M	$95.1M	$67.8M	$48.1M	$41.5M	$34.6M	$2.7M	−$11.6M	−$10.1M	−$16.9M
Net profit margin	16.22%	20.71%	18.64%	16.69%	17.44%	19.94%	19.42%	19.67%	16.83%	14.15%	10.91%	10.60%	10.10%	0.88%	−4.34%	−3.17%	−6.20%
Basic EPSper basic share	$1.78	$2.20	$1.88	$1.65	$1.81	$1.52	$1.24	$1.15	$0.81	$0.58	$0.38	$0.32	$0.26	$0.02	-$0.09	-$0.08	-$0.14
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$1.78	$2.20	$1.88	$1.65	$1.80	$1.51	$1.24	$1.14	$0.81	$0.58	$0.38	$0.32	$0.25	$0.02	-$0.09	-$0.08	-$0.14

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

10.30%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.10.49M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of TREX
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	10.30%10.49M shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	9.70%9.88M shares
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	5.93%6.04M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.62%4.7M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.36%4.44M shares
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC	3.70%3.77M shares
WASATCH ADVISORS LP	3.69%3.76M shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.57%3.63M shares
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	3.25%3.31M shares
STATE STREET CORP	3.19%3.25M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	2.20%2.24M shares
Clearbridge Investments, LLC	2.13%2.17M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.07%2.11M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.89%1.93M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.86%1.9M shares
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP	1.73%1.77M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.68%1.71M shares
SG Americas Securities, LLC	1.65%1.68M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.59%1.62M shares
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.	1.49%1.52M shares

Percentages use 101.87M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys10$998.7K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)7$697.5K disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 25, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Rudolph Jacob T.SVP, CHRO	SellCommon Stock	1.4K	$50.00	$70.0K	36.6K
Mar 3, 2026Form 4	ROSE B ANDREWDirector	BuyCommon Stock	11.0K	$40.74	$449.0K	14.2K
Mar 3, 2026Form 4	ROSE B ANDREWDirector	BuyCommon Stock	986	$40.14	$39.6K	3.2K
Mar 2, 2026Form 4	ROSE B ANDREWDirector	BuyCommon Stock	372	$40.26	$15.0K	2.2K
Nov 14, 2025Form 4	Gandhi PrithviSVP, Chief Financial Officer	BuyCommon Stock	15.0K	$31.92	$478.8K	30.7K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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