Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)

Price$5.96Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-05 19:51 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because their value depends on profits Frontier has not yet sustained.

At the observed quote, 230.2 million shares imply about $1.29 billion of market value. That is only 0.31 times roughly $4.15 billion of trailing revenue, but sales are not owner earnings. The valuation is about 15 times 2024 earnings, Frontier’s only annual profit since 2020, while 2025 lost $137 million. A 10% earnings return—annual profit divided by market value—would require about $129 million of repeatable profit, above 2024’s $85 million. That unsupported requirement drives the Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureRevenue has recovered, but profits and cash have swung too sharply to trust.

Revenue slipped 1% in 2025, while Frontier moved from an $85 million profit to a $137 million loss. It also burned about $600 million of free cash flow, meaning cash left after operations and capital spending. The first half of 2026 improved to roughly $166 million positive free cash flow, yet reported and adjusted losses were $362 million and $90 million. Second-quarter revenue jumped 38%, but favorable competitor capacity and volatile fuel costs helped shape the result. Cash durability therefore remains unproven.

Business strengthA fuel-efficient fleet helps costs, but heavy obligations leave little balance-sheet protection.

Frontier reported 106 seat miles per fuel gallon in the second quarter, over 40% better than major United States carriers, supporting a real cost advantage. However, June’s balance sheet held $955 million of cash against $5.24 billion of reported debt; current assets were $1.31 billion versus $2.24 billion of near-term liabilities, and equity was only $136 million. Shares increased from 199.4 million in 2020 to 230.2 million, about 15%, with no buybacks or expected dividends. This indicates financing, rather than shareholder distributions, has dominated capital allocation.

What could change the storySustained cash profits could justify the price, while another setback would expose the thin cushion.

The bull case requires second-half improvement to become durable: Frontier guided from a ten-cent adjusted loss to a ten-cent profit per share in the third quarter and breakeven to a twenty-cent profit in the fourth. Stronger revenue per seat, larger aircraft and improved loyalty income could eventually support at least $129 million of annual profit and positive free cash flow. The bear case is fuel exceeding management’s quarterly assumptions, new labor contracts lifting costs, or fleet exits consuming cash. Another loss year, dilution or negative free cash flow would weaken the valuation further.

AI: News

Record Revenue SurpriseRecord sales sharply narrowed the adjusted loss, improving the path toward second-half profit.

On July 29, Frontier reported second-quarter revenue of $1.28 billion, up 38%, as revenue per available seat mile rose 28% on 8% more capacity. The adjusted loss was $22 million, much better than prior guidance, although the reported net loss remained $90 million after fleet-related charges. Shares gained 4.3% that session and 7.4% the next; the timing is consistent with a favorable response, but does not prove the results caused every part of the move.

Another Fleet ReshapingFrontier is replacing smaller jets with fewer larger aircraft, trading future savings for near-term charges.

An August 31 filing disclosed agreements to return 13 A320neo aircraft during the second half of 2026 and lease 10 larger A321neo aircraft. Frontier expects about $260 million less in lease assets and liabilities, plus $60 million to $80 million of non-cash charges and $90 million to $120 million of cash charges, mostly payable in 2028 and 2029. Management expects similar capacity with fewer aircraft. The efficiency opportunity is credible, but the cash cost is material relative to thin equity.

Barclays Deal ExtendedA longer credit-card deal strengthens loyalty income and liquidity, but also extends financing dependence.

Frontier and Barclays extended their co-branded card agreement from 2029 through June 2037. The related facility, under which Barclays prepurchases loyalty miles, increased from $200 million to $375 million. This can improve recurring loyalty economics and provide additional liquidity without issuing shares immediately. However, the facility is financing rather than free cash, carries coverage conditions, and deepens Frontier’s reliance on future loyalty activity. Its value depends on retaining cardholders and converting rewards engagement into profitable travel.

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Revenue

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

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2025

Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$3.72B	$3.77B	$3.59B	$3.33B	$2.06B	$1.25B	$2.51B
Operating expenses	$3.87B	$3.72B	$3.59B	$3.37B	$2.18B	$1.61B	$2.20B
Operating income	−$149.0M	$58.0M	−$3.0M	−$45.0M	−$117.0M	−$365.0M	$309.0M
Operating margin	−4.00%	1.54%	−0.08%	−1.35%	−5.68%	−29.20%	12.32%
EBITDA	−$58.0M	$130.0M	$47.0M	$0	−$79.0M	−$332.0M	$355.0M
EBITDA margin	−1.56%	3.44%	1.31%	0.00%	−3.83%	−26.56%	14.15%
Net income	−$137.0M	$85.0M	−$11.0M	−$37.0M	−$102.0M	−$225.0M	$251.0M
Net profit margin	−3.68%	2.25%	−0.31%	−1.11%	−4.95%	−18.00%	10.01%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$0.60	$0.37	-$0.05	-$0.17	-$0.48	-$1.13	$1.19
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$0.60	$0.37	-$0.05	-$0.17	-$0.48	-$1.13	$1.19

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈43.24%of listed shares

Indigo Denver Management Company, LLC / FRANKE WILLIAM A99.54M shares · May 14, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of ULCC
Holder	% owned
Indigo Denver Management Company, LLC / FRANKE WILLIAM A	≈43.24%99.54M shares
Indigo Partners LLC	13.94%32.09M shares
Wildcat Capital Management, LLC	12.19%28.06M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	2.59%5.97M shares
Franke Brian H.	≈2.51%5.77M shares
U S GLOBAL INVESTORS INC	2.13%4.91M shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	2.03%4.68M shares
MARSHALL WACE, LLP	1.83%4.2M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	1.59%3.65M shares
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	1.55%3.57M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	1.47%3.37M shares
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC	1.25%2.88M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.09%2.5M shares
STATE STREET CORP	1.05%2.41M shares
Ancient Art, L.P.	1.04%2.4M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	0.83%1.91M shares
Balyasny Asset Management L.P.	0.76%1.76M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	0.76%1.76M shares
HRT FINANCIAL LP	0.73%1.67M shares
TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL	0.70%1.62M shares

Percentages use 230.2M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)46$29.80M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 5, 2026Form 4	Schuller SteveSVP, Human Resources	SellCommon Stock	10.0K	$6.00	$60.0K	97.2K
Jun 2, 2026Form 4	Clerc AlexandreSVP, Customers	SellCommon Stock	5.1K	$5.93	$30.0K	47.7K
May 21, 2026Form 4	Wetzel Josh AVP & CAO	SellCommon Stock	13.5K	$4.75	$64.1K	12.1K
May 7, 2026Form 4	Stedke Trevor J.Sr. Vice President, Operations	SellCommon Stock	83.1K	$5.41	$449.6K	167.3K
Feb 6, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Schuller SteveSVP, Human Resources	SellCommon Stock	5.0K	$6.00	$30.0K	94.9K