Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)

Price$6.18Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-04 16:23 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because acquisition upside is offset by dilution and renewed debt.

After the offering adds 114.99 million shares, the equity value implied by the observed quote is roughly US$1.50 billion, or C$2.10 billion. Estimated post-offering debt lifts enterprise value—the worth of shares plus net debt—to about C$2.7 billion. That is roughly 40–47 times pro forma 2025 earnings, depending on interest savings. The bullish counterpoint is potential annual cash generation near C$200 million, including planned savings. These conflicting measures support a fair-priced verdict, provided integration succeeds.

Big pictureCash generation is real but swings sharply with oil prices and heavy development spending.

Greenfire produced C$136.5 million of operating cash in 2025 but spent C$111.8 million on properties, leaving only C$24.7 million after running and investing in the business, down from C$57.1 million in 2024. The second quarter of 2026 was weaker: adjusted free cash flow was negative C$34.7 million versus positive C$23.0 million a year earlier. Production fell 14% to 13,607 barrels daily, development spending rose, and oil-price protection contracts lost C$39.9 million despite strong benchmark prices.

Business strengthLong-life oil assets provide durability, while production execution and concentrated ownership reduce resilience.

Greenfire ended 2025 with a C$49.7 million net financial surplus after eliminating C$338.2 million of 2024 debt, but the Connacher purchase reverses much of that protection; estimated debt after the current offering is around C$600 million. The acquired Great Divide project adds 441 million barrels of proved-plus-probable reserves with an estimated 62-year life. Combined production was about 34,000 barrels daily after closing. However, falling legacy production and Waterous Energy Fund’s roughly 72% ownership limit the comfort those long-lived assets provide minority holders.

What could change the storySuccessful integration and higher output could lift value, while weak cash flow would expose leverage.

The strongest bull case requires Greenfire to deliver C$30 million of annual integration savings, start Pad 7 production, and turn roughly 34,000 daily barrels into durable cash generation. Connacher’s disclosed sustaining cash flow was approximately C$158 million at benchmark oil of US$70 a barrel. The bear case is failed conversion: Greenfire already posted a first-half 2026 cash deficit while spending heavily. Share count rose from 69.7 million in 2024 to 125.4 million, and the offering adds another 115.0 million. Nonparticipating holders therefore face nearly halved percentage ownership.

AI: News

Connacher acquisition closesGreenfire closed a transformative oil-sands purchase that roughly doubled production and added integration risk.

On August 5, Greenfire completed the C$1.297 billion acquisition of Connacher. The purchased Great Divide project was expected to produce about 19,500 barrels daily and held 441 million barrels of proved-plus-probable reserves. Combined current production reached approximately 34,000 barrels daily. Management targets C$30 million of yearly operating and administrative savings by year-end. Shares had reportedly risen 9.4% when the deal was announced on July 13, although that timing alone does not establish the transaction as the sole cause.

Large rights offeringAn unusually large discounted share sale will repay acquisition borrowing but sharply dilute nonparticipants.

On August 7, Greenfire set terms for a C$775 million rights offering expiring September 15. It plans to issue up to 114.99 million shares against 125.43 million previously outstanding, using proceeds to repay a C$575 million bridge loan and other acquisition debt. Waterous Energy Fund, already owning about 72%, agreed to buy any unsubscribed balance. The backstop lowers refinancing risk, but holders who neither exercise nor sell their rights face substantial dilution. Shares fell 4.4% on the terms’ publication date; attribution remains uncertain.

Cash flow turns negativeSecond-quarter cash spending exceeded operating inflow as production fell and development accelerated.

Results released August 5 showed second-quarter production of 13,607 barrels daily, down from 15,748 a year earlier. Adjusted funds flow—cash generated from regular operations before investment—fell to C$21.9 million from C$33.8 million. Capital spending climbed to C$56.7 million, producing a C$34.7 million adjusted free-cash deficit. A planned turnaround contributed to lower output, while Pad 7 development drove spending. The figures matter because acquisition debt now makes reliable cash conversion more important.

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Revenue

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Revenue	$584.4M	$790.9M	$652.3M	$948.8M	$261.1M
Gross profit	$627.0M	$763.5M	$668.7M	$827.3M	$221.8M
Gross margin	107.29%	96.52%	102.52%	87.20%	84.95%
Operating expenses	$571.7M	$726.9M	$785.0M	$242.3M	—
Operating income	$59.3M	$144.0M	−$57.8M	$270.5M	—
Operating margin	10.14%	18.20%	−8.86%	28.51%	—
EBITDA	$181.2M	$165.8M	−$1.7M	$188.2M	—
EBITDA margin	31.01%	20.96%	−0.26%	19.84%	—
Net income	$47.5M	$121.4M	−$135.7M	$131.7M	$661.4M
Net profit margin	8.13%	15.35%	−20.80%	13.88%	253.30%
Basic EPSper basic share	CA$0.66	CA$1.76	-CA$2.49	CA$2.69	CA$15.52
Diluted EPSper diluted share	CA$0.66	CA$1.70	-CA$2.49	CA$1.88	CA$13.75

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of GFR
Holder	Shares held
Moerus Capital Management LLC	2.23M
WEXFORD CAPITAL LP	2.03M
Nokomis Capital, L.L.C.	1.61M
AEGIS FINANCIAL CORP	777.72K
K2 PRINCIPAL FUND, L.P.	720.74K
Saber Capital Managment, LLC	675.24K
LOUISBOURG INVESTMENTS INC.	661.98K
UBS Group AG	604.04K
BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/	497.76K
PCJ Investment Counsel Ltd.	444.66K
Beverly Hills Private Wealth, LLC	415.92K
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	378.82K
Quadrature Capital Ltd	372.71K
Militia Capital Management LLC	362.1K
DONALD SMITH & CO., INC.	295.85K
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	280.52K
1832 Asset Management L.P.	264.7K
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC	218.2K
MetLife Investment Management, LLC	203.69K
MORGAN STANLEY	189.47K

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

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Community posts

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@tickerstat25 days ago
Greenfire’s C$775 million rights offering is oversubscribed
Greenfire ($GFR) Resources reported preliminary results showing its C$775 million rights offering was oversubscribed. The company expects to issue the maximum approximately 115 million new shares, with no purchase required under the backsto ...
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Greenfire Resources Ltd. (GFR)

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Greenfire’s C$775 million rights offering is oversubscribed