GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL)

Price$140.47Cached quoteAs of 2026-10-06 16:49 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe valuation looks demanding because market value is huge beside current sales and continuing losses.

At the observed price, roughly 44.7 million shares imply an equity value near $3.6 billion. Against about $165 million of trailing twelve-month revenue, that is roughly 22 times sales. Even after backing out $861.6 million of cash and short-term securities, the remaining value exceeds 16 times sales. With continuing losses and negative operating cash flow, the price requires, in my inference, successful approval, much broader reimbursement, and a major swing toward positive cash generation. That supports an Overvalued verdict. StockAnalysis.com+2SEC+2

Big pictureSales are rising fast, but the business still consumes far more cash than it earns.

Revenue rose from $125.6 million in 2024 to $147.2 million in 2025, while first-half 2026 revenue reached $85.5 million, up about 27% from a year earlier. Operating cash use improved sharply from $577.2 million in 2024 to $299.0 million in 2025, but remained $167.7 million in the first half of 2026. Management has outlined a runway into 2030, yet the August filing still expects operating losses for several years and says future financing may be needed. Pasted text SEC+1

Business strengthGRAIL has strong clinical scale and liquidity, but broad insurance coverage remains the key missing piece.

Second-quarter Galleri volume exceeded 61,000 tests, up 35%, while Galleri revenue rose 24% to $42.6 million. GRAIL held $861.6 million of cash and short-term securities against only $83.5 million of current liabilities, and it had more than 19,000 prescribers before broad insurance coverage. Clinical evidence is meaningful but mixed: the NHS study missed its main combined late-stage-cancer goal, although Stage IV diagnoses in 12 aggressive cancers were 26% lower by the third round. First- and third-quarter seasonality can also make growth uneven. GRAIL, Inc.+2SEC+2

What could change the storyApproval and broad reimbursement could justify more growth, while delays would raise the risk of more share issuance.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration advisory panel meets September 23, and approval could help unlock large commercial insurers; Medicare can begin covering eligible approved multi-cancer tests as early as 2029. The bear case is financing. Shares outstanding rose from 33.9 million at year-end 2024 to 44.7 million by June 2026, and $189.3 million remained available under a share-sale program. Samsung added $110 million of funding but also 1.57 million new shares. That dilution means older shares represent a smaller ownership fraction. GRAIL, Inc.+4GRAIL, Inc.+4SEC+4

AI: News

FDA panel scheduledA September regulator panel puts the most important U.S. approval decision squarely in investors' near-term focus.

On August 7, GRAIL said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration would convene an advisory panel on September 23 to review Galleri's approval application. Reuters reported that shares rose about 5% on the news. The panel is not the final decision, but its recommendation can influence approval expectations. Approval matters commercially because GRAIL believes it could unlock broader private-insurer coverage, while a new Medicare benefit can begin in 2029 for eligible approved multi-cancer tests. Reuters+2GRAIL, Inc.+2

Growth meets heavy lossesRevenue and test volumes grew strongly, but spending remained heavy and shares fell after the report.

On August 5, GRAIL reported quarterly revenue of $44.7 million, up 26%, and Galleri volume above 61,000 tests, up 35%. Net loss was $110.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA loss, an operating-loss measure excluding several accounting items, widened to $90.3 million from about $78.3 million a year earlier. Investing.com reported an 8.6% after-hours share decline despite revenue beating consensus. That timing suggests concern about spending and profitability, although the price move cannot establish a single cause. GRAIL, Inc.+1

Samsung funding closesSamsung supplied fresh cash and an Asian partner, but the deal also increased the share count.

On June 25, Samsung affiliates completed a $110 million investment through the purchase of 1,570,308 newly issued GRAIL shares. The funding extends financial flexibility and supports U.S. reimbursement work, while the accompanying collaboration targets commercialization in South Korea and potentially Japan and Singapore. The trade-off is dilution, meaning existing shareholders own a slightly smaller percentage after new shares are issued. Strategically useful outside capital also highlights that the company is not yet funding its growth from operations. GRAIL, Inc.+1

NHS trial stays mixedThe biggest randomized study missed its main goal but still showed fewer very-late-stage cancers in later rounds.

On May 30, full NHS-Galleri results confirmed that the trial did not significantly reduce combined Stage III and IV cancers, its main goal. However, Stage IV diagnoses for 12 preselected aggressive cancers were 26% lower in the third screening round, and adding Galleri increased overall cancer detection roughly fourfold. The mixed evidence matters because regulators and insurers may weigh both the missed primary objective and the apparent reduction in very-late-stage disease when assessing approval, coverage, and broader adoption. GRAIL+1

Loading local price history

Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2022

2023

2024

2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$147.2M	$125.6M	$93.1M	$55.5M
Research & development	$195.8M	$322.4M	$338.7M	$329.6M
Operating expenses	$709.3M	$2.31B	$1.61B	$5.50B
Operating income	−$562.2M	−$2.19B	−$1.52B	−$5.44B
Operating margin	−381.98%	−1,743.03%	−1,627.61%	−9,798.18%
EBITDA	−$410.3M	−$2.04B	−$1.36B	−$5.29B
EBITDA margin	−278.76%	−1,620.72%	−1,461.93%	−9,519.58%
Net income	−$408.4M	−$2.03B	−$1.47B	−$5.40B
Net profit margin	−277.47%	−1,613.92%	−1,574.23%	−9,719.35%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$11.11	-$63.54	-$47.21	-$173.89
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$11.11	-$63.54	-$47.21	-$173.89

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

9.32%of listed shares

FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.4.16M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of GRAL
Holder	% owned
FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C.	9.32%4.16M shares
BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP	9.02%4.03M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	8.01%3.58M shares
ILLUMINA, INC.	≈7.84%3.5M shares
DING CHUN R	≈7.40%3.31M shares
STATE STREET CORP	5.34%2.39M shares
PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT CO/CA/	4.88%2.18M shares
Arbiter Partners Capital Management LLC	4.63%2.07M shares
Sessa Capital IM, L.P.	4.56%2.04M shares
Deep Track Capital, LP	4.11%1.83M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	3.67%1.64M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	3.27%1.46M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	2.22%991.38K shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	1.67%748.02K shares
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.	1.62%724K shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.62%723.44K shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	1.52%679.59K shares
RAGUSA ROBERT P	≈1.16%518.58K shares
Casdin Capital, LLC	1.07%480K shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	1.07%477.98K shares

Percentages use 44.67M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys4$1.02M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)56$139.39M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 4, 2026Form 4	Partridge Andrew JohnChief Growth Officer	SellCommon Stock	1.5K	$61.08	$91.1K	163.7K
Apr 8, 2026Form 4	Freidin AaronChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock	45.8K	$49.92	$2.29M	260.7K
Apr 8, 2026Form 4	RAGUSA ROBERT PChief Executive Officer	SellCommon Stock	123.5K	$49.92	$6.17M	518.6K
Apr 8, 2026Form 4	Ofman Joshua J.President	SellCommon Stock	61.7K	$49.92	$3.08M	371.2K
Mar 9, 2026Form 4	Freidin AaronChief Financial Officer	SellCommon Stock	85	$46.74	$4.0K	306.5K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Community posts

View community

@tickerstat16 days ago
FDA advisers back GRAIL’s Galleri test; final decision remains pending
An FDA advisory committee voted in favor of the benefit-risk profile of GRAIL ($GRAL)’s Galleri multicancer early-detection test for adults aged 50 and older. The benefit-risk vote was seven to two, with one abstention. Panel members unanim ...
0
0

GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Owners

Insider buys & sells

Community posts

FDA advisers back GRAIL’s Galleri test; final decision remains pending