Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM)

Price$74.15Cached quoteAs of 2026-10-30 14:21 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because today’s valuation assumes years of strong growth and margin gains.

The observed price values Tempus at roughly $12.4 billion. Management guides to $1.595–$1.605 billion of 2026 revenue and about $65 million of adjusted operating profit before interest, taxes and several excluded costs. That is roughly 7.7 times guided revenue and about 190 times that profit measure. Even assuming a strong future 20% net profit margin on $1.6 billion of sales, the current equity value would equal about 39 times hypothetical earnings. That leaves little value-investor margin for disappointment.

Big pictureRevenue is scaling quickly, but operating losses and free cash flow remain too weak for comfort.

Revenue reached $1.27 billion in 2025, up 83% from 2024, while the operating loss narrowed to $253 million from $691 million. Recent four-quarter revenue is about $1.43 billion, yet operating cash flow remained roughly negative $237 million and capital spending was about $26 million. Free cash flow, meaning cash left after running and investing in the business, was therefore around negative $263 million. Second-quarter cash burn improved sharply, but one good quarter does not yet establish durable cash generation.

Business strengthDemand is strong and liquidity is ample, but convertible debt and stock awards reduce the cushion.

Second-quarter revenue grew 22%, oncology testing volume rose 31%, and data licensing and modeling revenue grew 36%. Tempus also signed about $200 million of new Data and Applications licenses. Current assets were about $1.29 billion against $391 million of current liabilities. However, the latest filing records $1.17 billion of convertible senior notes, while first-half stock compensation reached $107 million, about 15% of first-half revenue. The business is less tied to consumer cycles than reimbursement, testing adoption and sometimes-lumpy data contracts.

What could change the storySustained positive cash flow or a clearly accretive Personalis deal could justify more of today’s premium.

The bull case strengthens if revenue keeps growing above 20%, free cash flow turns sustainably positive and Personalis expands cancer-monitoring adoption without heavy dilution. The bear case is that investors are paying today for profits still years away while financing acquisitions with shares and convertible debt. As a rough benchmark, a $12.4 billion equity value at 20 times earnings and a strong 20% net margin requires roughly $3.1 billion of annual revenue, almost twice the 2026 guide. Progress toward that scale without major new dilution would materially improve the valuation case.

AI: News

Personalis acquisitionTempus agreed to buy Personalis, adding cancer-monitoring technology but creating financing and dilution risk.

On July 20, Tempus agreed to acquire Personalis at an enterprise value of about $1.5 billion, net of its existing stake. The deal is structured primarily around Tempus shares, although Tempus can elect cash for up to 50% of the consideration. Personalis had only $22.4 million of second-quarter revenue. Tempus shares fell nearly 9% after the announcement, according to Reuters, consistent with investor concern about the purchase price and financing structure rather than the strategic rationale alone.

Second-quarter resultsRevenue growth stayed strong and guidance rose, but the headline profit depended on investment gains.

Tempus reported second-quarter revenue of $382.5 million, up 22%, and gross profit of $246.5 million, up 26%. It posted $5.6 million of net income and $8 million of adjusted operating profit before interest, taxes and selected exclusions. However, net income included about $98.5 million of unrealized gains on marketable investments. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $1.595–$1.605 billion while maintaining roughly $65 million of adjusted operating profit guidance, improving expectations without yet proving durable accounting profitability.

Cancer-vaccine readoutA successful late-stage melanoma trial increased the strategic value investors assign to the Personalis deal.

On August 19, Merck and Moderna said their Phase 3 personalized melanoma therapy met its main recurrence and distant-spread endpoints. Personalis has supplied its tumor-profiling technology to the same individualized cancer-vaccine program for years. Tempus shares rose about 24% that day and roughly 40% from the prior Friday through August 21. The timing and industry coverage strongly link the rally to the trial, but that remains market interpretation; the result does not itself guarantee future Tempus or Personalis revenue.

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Revenue

2022

2023

2024

2025

Net income

2022

2023

2024

2025

Free cash flow

2022

2023

2024

2025

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

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2025

Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022
Revenue	$1.27B	$693.4M	$531.8M	$320.7M
Research & development	$172.9M	$149.3M	$90.3M	$83.2M
Operating expenses	$1.52B	$1.38B	$727.9M	$586.1M
Operating income	−$252.9M	−$691.1M	−$196.1M	−$265.4M
Operating margin	−19.88%	−99.67%	−36.87%	−82.78%
EBITDA	−$220.8M	−$664.7M	−$174.5M	−$248.4M
EBITDA margin	−17.36%	−95.87%	−32.82%	−77.45%
Net income	−$245.0M	−$705.8M	−$214.1M	−$289.8M
Net profit margin	−19.27%	−101.79%	−40.26%	−90.38%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$1.41	-$6.23	-$4.20	-$5.30
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$1.41	-$6.23	-$4.20	-$5.30

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈20.77%of listed shares

LEFKOFSKY ERIC P36.4M shares · Sep 22, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of TEM
Holder	% owned
LEFKOFSKY ERIC P	≈20.77%36.4M shares
KEYWELL BRADLEY A	≈8.69%15.22M shares
Red Sky Ventures LLC / Keywell Kimberly Jo	≈8.34%14.61M shares
ARK Investment Management LLC	5.72%10.02M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	4.73%8.29M shares
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	4.67%8.19M shares
SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.	3.09%5.41M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	2.85%4.99M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.85%4.99M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	2.81%4.91M shares
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc.	2.33%4.09M shares
Amova Asset Management Americas, Inc.	2.33%4.09M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	2.15%3.76M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	2.08%3.65M shares
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC	1.91%3.35M shares
UBS Group AG	1.45%2.55M shares
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	1.43%2.51M shares
GC Wealth Management RIA, LLC	1.38%2.41M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.19%2.09M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	1.09%1.92M shares

Percentages use 175.2M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 4 ↗Updated Oct 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Oct 1, 2024–Sep 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)568$938.92M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Sep 25, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Schoenherr Thomas EdwardCEO, Diagnostics	SellClass A Common Stock	10.3K	$85.00	$873.9K	76.7K
Sep 22, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	LEFKOFSKY ERIC PCEO and Chairman	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	160	$78.86	$12.6K	100.0K
Sep 22, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	LEFKOFSKY ERIC PCEO and Chairman	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	14.0K	$78.23	$1.10M	100.2K
Sep 22, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	LEFKOFSKY ERIC PCEO and Chairman	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	29.4K	$77.29	$2.27M	114.2K
Sep 22, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	LEFKOFSKY ERIC PCEO and Chairman	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	6.4K	$76.57	$492.4K	143.6K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Community posts

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@tickerstat10 days ago
Tempus secures European IVDR certification for its RNA tumor-profiling assay
Tempus ($TEM) received certification for its xR assay under the European Union’s In Vitro Diagnostic Regulation as a Class C diagnostic device. The certification also covers its quality management system for cancer genomic profiling with ne ...
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@tickerstat1 month ago
Tempus gains FDA clearance for mitral-regurgitation screening AI
Tempus AI ($TEM) has received FDA 510(k) clearance for ECG-MR, software that examines standard resting 12-lead electrocardiograms for signs associated with previously undiagnosed moderate or severe mitral regurgitation. It is the company’s ...
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@tickerstat1 month ago
Tempus plans disease-focused dataset covering 100,000 whole genomes
Tempus AI ($TEM) launched an initiative to build a research platform linking 100,000 whole-genome sequences with long-term clinical information over several years. The company intends to focus on disease populations and treatment outcomes, ...
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Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM)

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Community posts

Tempus secures European IVDR certification for its RNA tumor-profiling assay

Tempus gains FDA clearance for mitral-regurgitation screening AI

Tempus plans disease-focused dataset covering 100,000 whole genomes