CBRE GROUP, INC. (CBRE)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because strong growth is already built into the price.

At the August 14 close of $152.86, 289.8 million June shares imply about $44.3 billion of market value. Management’s 2026 “core” earnings midpoint of $7.85—profit per share after selected charges are removed—puts the price at 19.5 times earnings. The valuation is roughly 34 times trailing reported profit and 26 times company-reported free cash flow of $1.68 billion, meaning cash left after operations, investment spending and real-estate-sale adjustments. A 3.8% cash yield offers limited protection if growth disappoints, supporting an overvalued verdict.

Big pictureGrowth has returned, but profits and cash still swing with property activity.

Revenue climbed every year from $23.17 billion in 2020 to $39.90 billion in 2025, but operating income fell from $1.64 billion in 2021 to $1.12 billion in 2023 before recovering to $1.75 billion. Operating cash flow was even less steady: $2.36 billion in 2021, $480 million in 2023 and $1.56 billion in 2025. Encouragingly, second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 16%, with steadier service lines up 15% and transaction-based lines up 19%. The mix cushions downturns, but property sales, leasing and development still make earnings cyclical.

Business strengthMarket leadership and recurring services help, while debt growth narrows the safety cushion.

The SEC-derived June 2026 balance sheet shows $8.09 billion of debt, $1.49 billion of cash and $6.60 billion of net debt, up from $4.19 billion of debt in December 2024. CBRE’s narrower measure excludes debt tied only to specific assets; it reported $5.89 billion of net debt, 1.6 times adjusted operating profit before interest and depreciation, and $4.4 billion of liquidity. Buybacks reduced shares from 335.6 million in 2020 to 289.8 million, despite stock pay, including $940 million repurchased in first-half 2026. Capital returns depend on continued repurchase discipline.

What could change the storyFaster service growth could justify the price, while a property slowdown would not.

The bull case strengthens if 2026 core earnings reach $7.80-$7.90, critical-infrastructure growth remains strong, free cash flow clears $2 billion and debt falls. That would make today’s 19.5-times forward multiple more reasonable. The bear case is a reversal in leasing or property sales while acquisition costs and interest remain: trailing reported profit is only $1.30 billion, far below adjusted profit. The current price therefore assumes both the property recovery and Pearce-led data-center expansion persist; a guidance cut or rising net debt would weaken that assumption quickly.

$152.86 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter guidance raiseBroad growth beat profit expectations and management raised its full-year earnings forecast again.

On July 29, CBRE reported second-quarter revenue of $11.2 billion, up 16%, and adjusted core earnings of $1.56 per share, up 30%. Management raised 2026 core earnings guidance to $7.80-$7.90 from $7.60-$7.80. Every segment increased operating profit by more than 25%, while critical-infrastructure revenue grew 68%. Shares closed 0.5% higher that day after a wide trading range; the timing does not establish that earnings alone caused the move.

First-quarter surgeA sharp profit increase produced the first major earnings forecast increase of 2026.

On April 23, CBRE reported first-quarter revenue of $10.5 billion, up 19%, while reported earnings per share nearly doubled to $1.07 and adjusted core earnings rose 81% to $1.61. Management increased full-year core earnings guidance to $7.60-$7.80 from $7.30-$7.60. Earlier-than-planned data-center development profits contributed, so investors should distinguish recurring service growth from development gains whose timing can move between quarters.

Pearce infrastructure acquisitionThe Pearce purchase expanded data-center services but also increased acquisition and financing risk.

On November 4, 2025, CBRE announced the approximately $1.2 billion cash purchase of Pearce Services, plus a possible $115 million extra payment if 2027 targets are met. Management expected the deal to add immediately to adjusted earnings and help combined digital and power infrastructure services generate more than $350 million of adjusted 2026 operating profit. Second-quarter 2026 critical-infrastructure growth supports the strategy, but the purchase also helps explain higher debt and makes integration and data-center demand more important to value.

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Free cash flow

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	$39.90B	$35.18B	$31.50B	$30.17B	$26.95B	$23.17B	$23.27B	$20.78B	$18.15B	$16.83B	$10.86B	$9.05B	$7.18B	$6.51B	$5.91B	$5.12B	$4.17B	$5.13B
Operating expenses	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	$3.37B	$2.86B	$2.78B	$2.63B	$2.44B	$2.10B	$2.00B	$1.88B	—	—	—
Operating income	$1.75B	$1.41B	$1.12B	$1.51B	$1.64B	$969.8M	$1.26B	$1.09B	$1.08B	$816.8M	$835.9M	$792.3M	$616.1M	$585.1M	$462.9M	$446.4M	$241.8M	−$788.5M
EBITDAderived	$2.48B	$2.09B	$1.74B	$2.13B	$2.16B	$1.47B	$1.70B	$1.54B	$1.48B	$1.18B	$1.15B	$1.06B	$806.5M	$754.7M	$578.6M	$554.8M	$341.3M	−$685.7M
Net income	$1.16B	$968.0M	$986.0M	$1.41B	$1.84B	$752.0M	$1.28B	$1.06B	$697.1M	$573.1M	$547.1M	$484.5M	$316.5M	$315.6M	$239.2M	$200.3M	$33.3M	−$1.01B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$3.88	$3.16	$3.20	$4.36	$5.48	$2.24	$3.82	$3.13	$2.06	$1.71	$1.64	$1.47	$0.96	$0.98	$0.75	$0.64	$0.12	-$4.81
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$3.85	$3.14	$3.15	$4.29	$5.41	$2.22	$3.77	$3.10	$2.05	$1.69	$1.63	$1.45	$0.95	$0.97	$0.74	$0.63	$0.12	-$4.81

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$242.1K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)27$9.93M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
May 15, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Giamartino Emma E.CFO & Chief Investment Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	2.3K	$130.74	$294.2K	110.7K
May 5, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Doellinger Chad JChief Legal & Admin. Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	107	$140.35	$15.0K	42.0K
Mar 12, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Doellinger Chad JChief Legal & Admin. Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	116	$130.06	$15.1K	42.4K
Mar 11, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Doellinger Chad JChief Legal & Admin. Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	471	$133.51	$62.9K	42.5K
Feb 26, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Giamartino Emma E.CFO & Chief Investment Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	9.2K	$148.61	$1.37M	126.5K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CBRE GROUP, INC. (CBRE)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells