CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP (COF)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look fairly priced because modest earnings valuation offsets a rich asset premium.

At $227.34, the August 14 close, Capital One’s equity value was about $139.5 billion using 613.5 million June shares. The price equals 11.1 times first-half adjusted earnings annualized and 2.16 times $105.21 of tangible book value, meaning net assets excluding goodwill and similar items. The earnings multiple is reasonable, but the asset premium assumes controlled credit losses and stronger returns from Discover. Because one strong quarter included a $662 million reserve release, neither an obvious bargain nor clear excess is proven.

Big pictureRecent earnings improved, but lending profits still depend heavily on consumer credit staying healthy.

Second-quarter 2026 net income was $3.0 billion, or $4.73 a share; adjusted earnings excluding acquisition-related charges were $5.81, versus $4.42 in the first quarter. Revenue rose 4% to $15.9 billion while the credit-loss provision fell $1.1 billion to $3.0 billion. Supplied filings show 2025 operating cash of $27.7 billion and capital spending of $1.6 billion, but their difference is not clean cash left over for a bank because loans and deposits drive cash flows. Durability therefore rests more on credit performance.

Business strengthStrong capital and rapid buybacks cushion risk, though acquisitions created major dilution and complexity.

At June 30, core common capital—the highest-quality loss cushion—was 13.7%, 4.7 percentage points above the 9.0% requirement. Tangible equity equaled 10.2% of tangible assets. Capital One repurchased $2.7 billion of shares in the second quarter after $2.8 billion in the first; shares declined to 613.5 million from 639.5 million a year earlier. However, Discover issuance had lifted 2025 year-end shares 64% to 625.1 million, and Brex added 10.6 million shares plus $2.6 billion cash. Buybacks offset dilution but consume capital.

What could change the storyDiscover integration can unlock upside, while weaker borrowers could quickly erase today’s valuation support.

The bull case strengthens if adjusted earnings stay near the second quarter’s $5.81 a share, loan growth remains profitable, and Discover’s network and cost savings push annual earnings above roughly $23 a share; today’s price would then be under ten times earnings. The bear case appears if the 3.13% delinquency rate or 3.23% charge-off rate turns upward, forcing provisions above $3.0 billion, or if integration costs persist after $298 million in the quarter. At 2.16 times tangible book value, weak asset growth would make the price demanding.

$227.34 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter earningsQuarterly earnings beat expectations, while acquisition costs and reserve releases complicated the apparent improvement.

On July 21, 2026, Capital One reported $3.0 billion of net income, or $4.73 per share. Adjusted earnings, which exclude acquisition-related charges, were $5.81 per share versus a $4.79 consensus estimate. Revenue rose 4% from the first quarter to $15.9 billion, and the net charge-off rate fell to 3.23%. Shares closed 2.4% lower on July 22; timing alone cannot establish why, while the $662 million reserve release and 7% expense increase complicated the apparent beat.

Capital stress testCapital remained well above requirements, supporting buybacks but offering no new regulatory relief.

On June 24, 2026, Capital One released its company-run recession test, while the Federal Reserve kept its stress capital buffer at 4.5% through September 30, 2027. Combined with the 4.5% minimum, that sets a 9.0% core capital requirement. Actual core capital was 13.7% at June 30, leaving a 4.7-point cushion. That capacity supports dividends and repurchases, but the unchanged buffer offers no fresh relief and was set before Discover joined the company.

Discover settlement finalizedA court finalized Discover’s major merchant settlement, reducing uncertainty around an inherited liability.

On May 20, 2026, a federal court gave final approval to the Discover merchant class settlement. Capital One filings say Discover had already reserved $1.2 billion and that the settlement is the main route for compensating merchants affected by card-pricing misclassification. Approval therefore reduced legal uncertainty more than it created a new expense. Claims processing still matters: payments above the reserve would reduce tangible equity and weaken the acquisition’s value. No reliable, separate share-price reaction could be established.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$8.06B	$5.92B	$5.64B	$5.42B	$4.78B	$3.74B	$3.82B	$3.43B	$27.24B	$23.41B	$22.29B	$22.38B	$21.40B	$16.28B	$16.17B	$12.98B	$13.89B	—
Operating expenses	$30.50B	$21.49B	$20.32B	$19.16B	$16.57B	$15.06B	$15.48B	$14.90B	$14.19B	$13.00B	$12.18B	$12.35B	$11.80B	$9.33B	$7.93B	$7.42B	$8.21B	$8.08B
Net income	$2.45B	$4.75B	$4.89B	$7.36B	$12.39B	$2.71B	$5.55B	$6.01B	$1.98B	$4.05B	$4.43B	$4.12B	$3.49B	$3.15B	$2.74B	$884.0M	−$46.0M	$1.57B
Basic EPSper diluted share	$4.03	$11.61	$11.98	$17.98	$27.04	$5.19	$11.10	$11.90	$3.52	$7.15	$7.71	$6.99	$6.17	$6.85	$6.07	$0.75	-$0.21	$4.02
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$4.03	$11.59	$11.95	$17.91	$26.94	$5.18	$11.05	$11.82	$3.49	$7.07	$7.59	$6.89	$6.11	$6.80	$6.01	$0.74	-$0.21	$3.97

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)89$113.71M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 2, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Cooper Matthew WGeneral Counsel & Corp Secy	SellCommon Stock	3.5K	$183.36	$641.8K	93.7K
May 13, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Haggerty KaitlinChief Human Resources Officer	SellCommon Stock	119	$182.59	$21.7K	49.2K
May 12, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Haggerty KaitlinChief Human Resources Officer	SellCommon Stock	1.3K	$183.93	$240.4K	49.3K
May 12, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Cooper Matthew WGeneral Counsel & Corp Secy	SellCommon Stock	3.5K	$183.93	$643.8K	97.2K
May 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Karam CeliaPres, Retail Bank	SellCommon Stock	1.7K	$192.58	$336.8K	61.6K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP (COF)

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Financial statements

Insider buys & sells