Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)

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AI: Overvalued

Price checkAt about $150, the shares demand a strong earnings recovery that is not yet visible.

The observed price values 263.8 million shares at roughly $39.5 billion, or about $37.4 billion after subtracting June’s $2.13 billion net cash. That equals 33.7 times 2025 earnings per share, although Coinbase has since lost $754 million during 2026’s first half. Even a fairly generous valuation of 20–25 times sustainable profit requires annual earnings near $1.6–$2.0 billion. That exceeds 2025’s $1.26 billion and assumes the current trading downturn reverses, supporting an Overvalued verdict.

Big pictureRevenue remains deeply cyclical, and 2026 has exposed how quickly profits can disappear.

Revenue reached $7.84 billion in 2021, collapsed to $3.19 billion with a $2.62 billion loss in 2022, then recovered to $7.18 billion in 2025. Yet 2025 profit fell 51% to $1.26 billion, and both 2026 quarters produced losses. First-half operating cash flow—cash generated before investing—was only $380 million, down sharply from $2.43 billion for all of 2025, while stock compensation was $486 million. Recent capital-spending figures are unavailable, so free cash flow, meaning cash left after business investment, cannot be measured reliably.

Business strengthA cash-rich balance sheet and broader products improve survival odds, but dilution remains costly.

At June 30, Coinbase held $8.61 billion of cash against $6.48 billion of debt, leaving $2.13 billion of net cash. Current assets of $17.49 billion also comfortably exceeded $7.22 billion of current liabilities. The platform captured a record 10.3% trading-volume share in the second quarter, while prediction-market revenue more than doubled. However, shares rose 5.6% during 2025 despite $790 million of buybacks. Another $1.24 billion was repurchased during 2026’s first half, partly countering $486 million of stock compensation rather than delivering an unambiguous shareholder return.

What could change the storyDurable service growth could justify the price, while another trading slump would undermine it.

The strongest bull case is that derivatives, prediction markets and USD Coin—a dollar-linked digital token—turn Coinbase into a broader exchange. Prediction-market revenue exceeded a $100 million annual pace, and average USD Coin held on Coinbase reached $20 billion. The bear case is already visible: second-quarter transaction revenue fell 21% and the company lost $359 million. The valuation would look more defensible if annual profit recovered above roughly $1.6 billion with stable share count. Continued quarterly losses or operating cash below $1 billion annually would weaken the case materially.

$149.88 price considered

AI: News

Third straight quarterly lossSecond-quarter revenue fell and losses continued, showing trading weakness still overwhelms diversification.

On July 30, Coinbase reported second-quarter revenue of $1.22 billion and a $359.5 million loss, versus a $1.43 billion profit one year earlier. Transaction revenue declined 21% to $599.2 million as weaker crypto activity reduced customer trading. Reuters reported that shares fell 4.9% after hours. That reaction followed the earnings release, although trading at that time cannot prove the results were its only cause. The loss directly challenges expectations for a rapid profit recovery.

Crypto bill delayedLawmakers delayed a key crypto bill, leaving Coinbase’s hoped-for regulatory boost uncertain.

On July 27, the Senate set aside the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act while lawmakers worked on other priorities and unresolved political provisions. The proposed law would divide oversight of digital assets between federal regulators, potentially making it easier for Coinbase to list assets and serve institutions. Coinbase shares had risen about 9% on July 21 amid optimism surrounding the bill, according to contemporaneous reporting, but that timing only suggests possible investor attribution. The delay leaves adoption benefits and compliance savings uncertain.

Everything Exchange expandsCoinbase widened trading beyond crypto, creating new fee opportunities but adding execution demands.

On June 16, Coinbase announced expanded stock, index and exchange-traded fund trading, portfolio transfers and plans to combine its American spot exchange, international derivatives venues and Deribit liquidity. This followed the May 29 introduction of regulated perpetual crypto futures access for American investors. These products could diversify transaction fees beyond ordinary crypto buying and selling. No reliable one-day stock reaction was established, and the financial contribution remains early, but second-quarter prediction-market revenue growth shows that adjacent products can gain traction.

Workforce cut by 14%Coinbase cut 700 jobs to lower costs as weaker crypto activity pressured results.

Coinbase disclosed on May 5 that it would eliminate approximately 700 positions, equal to 14% of its workforce, to reduce expenses and reorganize operations around artificial intelligence. Management explicitly cited current market conditions as well as expected productivity gains. The cuts may make profits more resilient when trading slows, but they also confirm that revenue weakness required a substantial cost response. A positive share move around the announcement cannot be assigned solely to the restructuring because crypto prices and broader markets were moving simultaneously.

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	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$7.18B	$6.56B	$3.11B	$3.19B	$7.84B	$1.28B	$533.7M
Research & development	$1.67B	$1.47B	$1.32B	$2.33B	$1.29B	$271.7M	$185.0M
Operating expenses	$5.75B	$4.26B	$3.27B	$5.90B	$4.76B	$868.5M	$579.5M
Operating income	$1.44B	$2.31B	−$161.7M	−$2.71B	$3.08B	$409.0M	−$45.8M
EBITDAderived	$1.62B	$2.43B	−$22.0M	−$2.56B	$3.14B	$439.9M	−$28.9M
Net income	$1.26B	$2.58B	$94.9M	−$2.62B	$3.62B	$322.3M	−$30.4M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$4.85	$10.42	$0.40	-$11.81	$17.47	$1.58	-$0.50
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$4.45	$9.48	$0.37	-$11.83	$14.50	$1.40	-$0.50

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)1078$1.63B disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 5, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Jones Jennifer N.Chief Accounting Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	2.1K	$158.15	$324.4K	0
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	WILSON FREDERICK RDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	200	$186.17	$37.2K	30.0K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	WILSON FREDERICK RDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	900	$185.46	$166.9K	30.2K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	WILSON FREDERICK RDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	1.2K	$184.22	$221.1K	31.1K
Jun 1, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	WILSON FREDERICK RDirector	SellClass A Common Stock · indirect	500	$183.05	$91.5K	32.3K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)

Financial charts

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Insider buys & sells