DOW INC. (DOW)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkAt the current price, Dow balances recovery value against temporary earnings risk.

The last regular close before the observation time was $31.07 on August 14. Using 722.3 million June shares, that implies about $22.4 billion of equity value. The $1.40 annualized dividend yields 4.5%. Six-year average free cash flow—cash left after operations and capital spending—was about $2.9 billion, putting the price at 7.7 times that cash flow. Yet 2024-2025 combined free cash flow was negative, and 2026's rebound contains temporary benefits. Those offsets make the shares fair-priced, not clearly cheap.

Big pictureDow’s cash and profits swing sharply because chemical prices matter more than steady demand.

Reported results show a deep cycle: revenue peaked at $56.9 billion in 2022, then fell to $40.0 billion in 2025. Common-shareholder income swung from $6.3 billion in 2021 and $4.6 billion in 2022 to a $2.6 billion loss in 2025. Second-quarter 2026 sales rebounded 20% and income reached $802 million, but companywide volume still slipped 1%. The inference is that pricing, not broad demand, drove the rebound, so one strong quarter does not yet prove durable earnings.

Business strengthLiquidity is adequate, but heavy debt and rising share count reduce the safety margin.

At June 30, Dow held $4.0 billion cash and $20.9 billion current assets against $11.9 billion current liabilities, so near-term bills appear covered. However, roughly $18.0 billion of debt left $14.0 billion of net debt, almost matching $15.9 billion of common equity. First-half free cash flow was $1.313 billion versus $505 million of dividends, but included about $1 billion of one-time legal cash. Dow issued 5.1 million shares and repurchased none; the half-year average share count rose 2.0%, creating modest dilution while debt remains high.

What could change the storyLasting cost savings could unlock upside, while normalized plastic prices would expose weak demand.

The strongest bull case is management's more than $1.3 billion of 2026 self-help benefits, which could survive a softer market. The bear case is clearer: second-quarter local prices rose 20% while volume fell 1%, and third-quarter operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization guidance fell to about $1.7 billion from $2.312 billion. If annual free cash flow settles above $2 billion and net debt declines, $31.07 would look conservative. If pricing reverses and cash approaches the roughly $1.0 billion annual dividend need, the shares would look expensive.

$31.07 price considered

AI: News

Second-quarter reboundSecond-quarter profit rebounded sharply, but guidance warned that the strongest pricing boost may fade.

On July 23, 2026, Dow reported $12.092 billion of sales and $1.44 of operating earnings per share, versus a $0.42 loss a year earlier; analysts expected about $1.28. Free cash flow was $692 million. Packaging plastic prices rose 30% while volume fell 4%, showing the rebound relied on supply-driven pricing. Management modeled third-quarter profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization near $1.7 billion, down from $2.312 billion. Shares closed 1.1% lower; a broad market selloff makes attribution uncertain.

Dividend held steadyThe board kept the reduced dividend, supporting income while leaving less cash for debt reduction.

On August 12, 2026, Dow declared a $0.35 quarterly dividend payable September 11. That keeps the annualized payment at $1.40, a 4.5% yield at the observed price, but remains half the $0.70 quarterly rate paid through June 2025. First-half 2026 free cash flow covered reported dividends, although about $1 billion came from a one-time legal award. The decision supports income expectations but preserves less cash for debt reduction. No reliable isolated stock reaction was established.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
Revenue	$39.97B	$42.96B	$44.62B	$56.90B	$54.97B	$38.54B	$42.95B	$49.60B	$43.73B
Gross profit	—	—	—	—	—	$5.20B	$6.29B	$8.53B	—
Research & development	$752.0M	$810.0M	$829.0M	$851.0M	$857.0M	$768.0M	$765.0M	$800.0M	$803.0M
Net income	−$2.44B	$1.20B	$660.0M	$4.64B	$6.41B	$1.29B	−$1.27B	$4.78B	$595.0M
Basic EPSper diluted share	-$3.70	$1.57	$0.82	$6.32	$8.44	$1.64	-$1.84	$6.21	$0.60
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$3.70	$1.57	$0.82	$6.28	$8.38	$1.64	-$1.84	$6.21	$0.60

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys5$1.64M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 7, 2025Form 4	Dial Debra L.Director	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	675	$38.81	$26.2K	2.7K
Dec 13, 2024Form 4	Banister Gaurdie E. JR.Director	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	7.3K	$40.87	$299.9K	10.9K
Dec 12, 2024Form 4	Fitterling James RChair and CEO	BuyCommon Stock	11.4K	$41.45	$472.5K	117.8K
Dec 12, 2024Form 4	Fitterling James RChair and CEO	BuyCommon Stock · indirect	14.2K	$41.52	$589.6K	247.5K
Dec 12, 2024Form 4	DAVIS RICHARD KDirector	BuyCommon Stock	6.0K	$41.45	$249.7K	43.0K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

DOW INC. (DOW)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells