GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC (GPN)

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AI: Undervalued

Price checkThe shares look undervalued if most adjusted profit turns into cash as planned.

At $93.05, the August 14 close, Global Payments was worth about $24.7 billion using 265.8 million June shares. Management’s 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of $13.60–$13.80 per share means the price equals only 6.8 times one year’s midpoint earnings. The cleaner 2025 record also supports value: $2.66 billion of operating cash minus $0.62 billion of capital spending left $2.04 billion after running and investing in the business, an 8.2% yield on today’s equity value. Post-deal cash must recover for this verdict to hold.

Big picturePayments produce durable cash, but travel exposure makes growth sensitive to spending shocks.

Revenue was nearly flat at $7.71 billion in 2025. Cash left after operations and capital spending was $2.04 billion, down from $2.38 billion in 2024 but positive in every supplied year since 2020 and averaging about $2.02 billion. Second-quarter 2026 normalized net revenue grew 4%, while the adjusted operating margin reached 42.0%, indicating recurring payment activity remains profitable. However, travel-related volumes are cyclical: disruption from the Middle East conflict led management to reduce 2026 growth guidance to 4%–5%.

Business strengthLarge scale supports margins, while heavy debt and deal adjustments weaken downside protection.

June debt was $22.42 billion against $5.41 billion of cash, leaving $17.01 billion of net debt; first-half interest expense rose 73% to $520 million. Standard-accounting earnings were also far below management’s adjusted measure: second-quarter earnings were $0.05 per share versus $3.46 adjusted after nearly $1.0 billion of exclusions, principally acquired-asset amortization and deal costs. Shares fell 21% during 2020–2025, but Worldpay consideration lifted the June count 12% above year-end. First-half buybacks then retired 15.2 million shares for $1.11 billion, averaging $73.01 each.

What could change the storyCash recovery and debt reduction would confirm value; integration slippage would erase it.

The bull case is measurable: management expects more than $650 million of annual transformation benefits by mid-2027, $600 million of Worldpay cost savings by late 2028, and leverage reduced to three times adjusted earnings before financing costs within 18–24 months. The bear case is that first-half operating cash was only $374 million while capital spending reached $497 million, partly because of transaction payments. At $93.05, investors are discounting adjusted earnings heavily. Recovering cash flow and falling net debt would validate that discount; growth below 4% or persistently weak cash would not.

$93.05 price considered

AI: News

Guidance trimmed after quarterQuarterly profit grew, but weaker travel spending led management to lower its yearly expectations.

On August 5, 2026, Global Payments reported $3.16 billion of adjusted net revenue, 4% normalized growth, and adjusted earnings of $3.46 per share, up 12%. It lowered expected 2026 normalized growth to 4%–5% from about 5% and earnings to $13.60–$13.80 per share from $13.80–$14.00, citing Middle East conflict effects on travel. Shares closed 0.9% lower after trading between $86.00 and $90.85. That timing suggests a mixed reception but does not prove the announcement caused the move.

Analyst upgrade lifts sharesImproving customer feedback on key products encouraged a major analyst to turn more positive.

On July 20, 2026, Morgan Stanley upgraded Global Payments and raised its target price to $100 from $65. Its customer checks suggested improved Worldpay products and service, alongside greater adoption of the Genius small-business platform. Global Payments rose 5.85% to $82.37 that day on elevated volume. The timing supports, but does not prove, attribution to the upgrade. The report mattered because better customer retention and cross-selling would make the Worldpay savings and revenue-growth assumptions more credible.

Worldpay transformation completedThe Worldpay deal greatly expanded merchant scale while adding debt, new shares, and integration risk.

On January 9, 2026, Global Payments completed its Worldpay acquisition and sold Issuer Solutions. It paid GTCR about $6.0 billion plus 42.8 million shares and received about $7.5 billion plus FIS’s Worldpay interest for the divested business. The combined company serves more than six million merchant locations handling roughly $3.7 trillion of yearly payment volume. Management targeted lower leverage within 18–24 months, making integration savings and cash generation central to the stock’s value rather than optional benefits.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016 · Dec 31	2016 · May 31	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009
Revenue	$7.71B	$7.74B	$7.38B	$8.98B	$8.52B	$7.42B	$4.91B	$3.37B	$3.98B	$3.37B	$2.90B	$2.77B	$2.55B	$2.38B	$2.20B	$1.86B	$1.64B	$1.46B
Operating income	$1.75B	$1.97B	$1.32B	$640.2M	$1.36B	$894.0M	$791.4M	$737.1M	$558.9M	$356.3M	$424.9M	$456.6M	$405.5M	$357.2M	$307.3M	$331.6M	$323.3M	$292.5M
EBITDAderived	$2.98B	$3.19B	$2.46B	$2.30B	$3.05B	$2.51B	$1.67B	$1.26B	$1.01B	—	$612.8M	$594.1M	$527.6M	$469.0M	$406.4M	$413.8M	$391.9M	—
Net income	$1.40B	$1.57B	$986.2M	$111.5M	$965.5M	$584.5M	$430.6M	$452.1M	$468.4M	$201.8M	$271.7M	$278.0M	$245.3M	$216.1M	$188.2M	$209.2M	$203.3M	$37.2M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$5.79	$6.18	$3.78	$0.41	$3.30	$1.95	$2.17	$2.85	$3.03	$1.38	$2.05	$2.07	$1.70	$2.78	$2.39	$2.62	$2.51	$0.46
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$5.78	$6.16	$3.77	$0.40	$3.29	$1.95	$2.16	$2.84	$3.01	$1.37	$2.04	$2.06	$1.69	$2.76	$2.37	$2.60	$2.48	$0.46

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys5$1.96M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)10$6.05M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 20, 2026Form 4	JOHNSON JOIA MDirector	BuyCommon Stock	1.2K	$81.90	$99.3K	4.4K
Dec 11, 2025Form 4	SHEFFIELD DAVID MEVP, Chief Accounting Officer	SellCommon Stock	2.0K	$81.41	$164.1K	14.4K
Dec 11, 2025Form 4	BALDWIN ROBERT H B JRDirector	BuyCommon Stock	10.4K	$81.42	$846.1K	59.3K
Dec 10, 2025Form 4	BALDWIN ROBERT H B JRDirector	BuyCommon Stock	3.0K	$80.25	$240.8K	48.9K
Dec 3, 2025Form 4	Green David LawrenceChief Administrative Officer	SellCommon Stock	11.6K	$79.99	$927.9K	68.1K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC (GPN)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells