NVIDIA CORP (NVDA)

Price—Loading quote

AI: Overvalued

Price checkNVIDIA’s price demands years of extraordinary cash growth, leaving little room for disappointment.

At the recent verifiable quote of $217.46, 24.22 billion shares imply about $5.27 trillion of equity value. Trailing earnings are roughly $6.53 a share, using fiscal 2026 earnings plus the latest quarter and subtracting the year-earlier quarter, so the price is about 33 times earnings. Trailing free cash flow—cash left after running and investing in the business—was about $119 billion, implying roughly 44 times cash flow. For an 8% cash yield in five years, cash flow must reach about $422 billion, requiring roughly 29% annual growth.

Big pictureProfits and cash are surging, but history shows this chip boom can reverse sharply.

Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 65% to $215.9 billion, while net income increased 65% to $120.1 billion. Free cash flow reached about $96.7 billion, up 59%. The latest quarter produced another $48.6 billion. However, its $58.3 billion net income included $15.9 billion of pretax investment gains, which are not dependable operating earnings. Cyclicality remains important: fiscal 2023 revenue was nearly flat, yet operating profit fell 58%. Data centers now supply about 92% of quarterly revenue, concentrating results on unusually heavy infrastructure spending.

Business strengthThe core franchise and balance sheet are exceptional, while buybacks partly offset employee share awards.

The latest quarter delivered a 74.9% gross margin and 65.6% operating margin, evidence of strong pricing and a difficult-to-copy computing platform. Cash and marketable debt investments totaled about $50.3 billion, against $8.5 billion of debt; current assets of $151.0 billion comfortably exceeded $43.9 billion of current liabilities. NVIDIA spent $40.1 billion on buybacks during fiscal 2026 and another $19.3 billion last quarter. Employee share awards cost $6.4 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively, while diluted shares fell only 0.9% year over year. Repurchasing highly valued shares may create limited long-term value.

What could change the storyNew systems and outside financing could extend growth, while weaker customer spending would expose the valuation.

The bull case strengthens if second-quarter revenue meets the $91 billion guide, then Vera Rubin shipments begin this fall without disrupting roughly 75% gross margins. Financing platforms could mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital for customers, but that is neither booked revenue nor guaranteed demand. The bear case becomes clearer if sequential sales growth falls below 10%, gross margin slips under 70%, or large cloud customers slow data-center budgets. Results due August 26 are the next check; sustained cash growth near 30% is needed to make today’s price less stretched.

$217.46 price considered

AI: News

Record quarter and payoutsRecord sales, a stronger outlook, and much larger shareholder payouts confirmed continued artificial-intelligence demand.

On May 20, NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year and above the $78.9 billion analyst average reported by the Associated Press. Data-center revenue reached $75.2 billion, and management guided the following quarter to about $91 billion. The board added $80 billion of buyback authority and raised the quarterly dividend from one cent to 25 cents. Shares initially gained about 1.4% after hours, although that brief move did not establish a lasting market reaction.

Vera Rubin enters productionNVIDIA began producing its next platform, supporting another major product cycle beginning this fall.

On May 31, NVIDIA said Vera Rubin systems were ramping into full production, with shipments scheduled to begin in fall 2026. The company claims the platform can deliver ten times the agent-processing throughput of Grace Blackwell at scale, while major server manufacturers and cloud providers are preparing deployments. This matters because a timely transition could protect NVIDIA’s performance lead and revenue growth. No reliable isolated stock-price reaction was established, and the performance comparison remains a company claim until customers deploy systems broadly.

Five-hundred-billion financing planNVIDIA enlisted major financial firms to fund customer infrastructure, expanding demand but raising financing-quality concerns.

On August 10, NVIDIA announced arrangements with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR intended to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital for artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Easier financing could help customers purchase more NVIDIA systems sooner. It is not a $500 billion order or a payment to NVIDIA, and it may shift attention toward customer credit quality and circular funding. Shares fell 2.9% that day, but timing alone cannot prove the announcement caused the decline.

China shipments remain limitedAdvanced chip shipments to China restarted slowly, preserving possible growth without supporting current guidance.

On July 14, a United States Commerce Department official told Congress that only a very small number of NVIDIA H200 processors had been shipped to China. Regulatory access could restore meaningful sales over time, but approvals remain politically sensitive and China is promoting domestic alternatives. NVIDIA’s $91 billion second-quarter revenue guide assumed no Chinese data-center computing revenue, so these sales were not required to meet that target. No reliable event-specific share-price reaction was identified; the importance lies mainly in longer-term revenue potential.

Revenue

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Net income

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Free cash flow

2010

2011

2012

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Total cash / debt

CashTotal debt

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Financial statements

	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	$215.94B	$130.50B	$60.92B	$26.97B	$26.91B	$16.68B	$10.92B	$11.72B	$9.71B	$6.91B	$5.01B	$4.68B	$4.13B	$4.28B	$4.00B	$3.54B	$3.33B	$3.42B	$4.10B
Gross profit	$153.46B	$97.86B	$44.30B	$15.36B	$17.48B	$10.40B	$6.77B	$7.17B	$5.82B	$4.06B	$2.81B	$2.60B	$2.27B	$2.23B	$2.06B	$1.41B	$1.18B	$1.17B	$1.87B
Research & development	$18.50B	$12.91B	$8.68B	$7.34B	$5.27B	$3.92B	$2.83B	$2.38B	$1.80B	$1.46B	$1.33B	$1.36B	$1.34B	$1.15B	$1.00B	$848.8M	$908.9M	$855.9M	$691.6M
Operating expenses	$23.08B	$16.41B	$11.33B	$11.13B	$7.43B	$5.86B	$3.92B	$3.37B	$2.61B	$2.13B	$2.06B	$1.84B	$1.77B	$1.58B	$1.41B	$1.15B	$1.28B	$1.24B	$1.03B
Operating income	$130.39B	$81.45B	$32.97B	$4.22B	$10.04B	$4.53B	$2.85B	$3.80B	$3.21B	$1.93B	$747.0M	$759.0M	$496.0M	$648.2M	$648.3M	$255.7M	−$98.9M	−$70.7M	$836.3M
EBITDAderived	$133.23B	$83.32B	$34.48B	$5.77B	$11.21B	$5.63B	$3.23B	$4.07B	$3.41B	$2.12B	$944.0M	$979.0M	$735.0M	$874.5M	$852.5M	$442.7M	$97.7M	$114.3M	$969.5M
Net income	$120.07B	$72.88B	$29.76B	$4.37B	$9.75B	$4.33B	$2.80B	$4.14B	$3.05B	$1.67B	$614.0M	$631.0M	$440.0M	$562.5M	$581.1M	$253.1M	−$68.0M	−$30.0M	$797.6M
Basic EPSper diluted share	$4.93	$2.97	$1.21	$0.18	$3.91	$1.76	$1.15	$6.81	$5.09	$3.08	$1.13	$1.14	$0.75	$0.91	$0.96	$0.44	-$0.12	-$0.05	$1.45
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$4.90	$2.94	$1.19	$0.17	$3.85	$1.73	$1.13	$6.63	$4.82	$2.57	$1.08	$1.12	$0.74	$0.90	$0.94	$0.43	-$0.12	-$0.05	$1.31

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)1010$3.99B disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 18, 2026Form 4	STEVENS MARK ADirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	565.6K	$210.44	$119.03M	5.21M
Jun 18, 2026Form 4	STEVENS MARK ADirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	319.4K	$209.70	$66.98M	5.77M
Jun 4, 2026Form 4	STEVENS MARK ADirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	400.0K	$220.37	$88.15M	6.40M
Jun 4, 2026Form 4	STEVENS MARK ADirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	100.0K	$217.66	$21.77M	6.80M
Jun 3, 2026Form 4	Neal Stephen CDirector	SellCommon Stock · indirect	15.5K	$215.73	$3.34M	116.1K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

NVIDIA CORP (NVDA)

Financial charts

Financial statements

Insider buys & sells