Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)

Price$31.63Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-25 16:04 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkAt about $35, the shares look fairly priced, not clearly cheap after the reset.

The latest closing price I could verify was $35.44 on August 19, 2026, one trading day before the requested timestamp. Against management's updated 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of $1.90-$2.00 per share, that is about 18 times expected earnings. A cautious 16-18 times range implies roughly $30-$36. The $0.96 annual dividend yields about 2.7%. The price already discounts substantial disappointment, but it offers little margin of safety unless earnings recover above current guidance.

Big pictureSales keep growing, but profit and cash have stopped keeping pace.

Revenue rose from $10.62 billion in 2020 to $15.52 billion in 2025, yet operating income was essentially unchanged from 2023 through 2025 at about $1.47 billion. Free cash flow, meaning cash left after operations and capital spending, was about $740 million in 2025. More concerning, first-half 2026 operating cash fell to $653 million from $1.00 billion a year earlier while capital spending rose, leaving only about $217 million before acquisitions. Inventory investment and seasonality explain part, but cash durability now needs proving.

Business strengthThe core retailer remains durable, though debt and pet investments reduce financial flexibility.

Tractor Supply still produces substantial profit from a needs-oriented rural retail base: second-quarter sales rose 2.3% to $4.54 billion despite comparable-store sales falling 1.5%. The balance sheet is workable rather than fortress-like. June cash was $232 million against $2.15 billion of debt, or roughly $1.92 billion net debt, while current assets exceeded current liabilities by about $1.06 billion. Shares outstanding fell about 2% year over year through buybacks, but first-half buybacks and dividends totaled $506 million while debt increased about $389 million.

What could change the storyA sales recovery could unlock upside; another weak year would make today's price demanding.

The bull case is a rebound in customer visits and companion-animal sales, with new stores and pet services restoring earnings toward or above 2025's $2.06 per share; at 18 times $2.10-$2.20, value approaches roughly $38-$40. The bear case is that negative comparable sales persist while higher spending, Petsense restructuring and pet acquisitions consume cash. Management already cut 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to $1.90-$2.00 and withdrew its long-term framework. A return to positive comparable sales and stronger free cash flow would materially strengthen the thesis.

AI: News

Outlook sharply reducedJuly's earnings update cut growth expectations and removed the company's previous long-term targets.

On July 23, 2026, Tractor Supply reported second-quarter comparable-store sales down 1.5% and reduced expected 2026 adjusted earnings to $1.90-$2.00 per share from $2.13-$2.23. Expected comparable sales moved from 1%-3% growth to a decline of as much as 1% or flat. Management also withdrew its December 2024 long-term financial framework. Shares were reported about 3.3% higher premarket, so the immediate reaction was not simply negative despite the materially weaker outlook.

VIP Petcare acquiredTractor Supply bought a major veterinary-services network to deepen its struggling pet-care business.

On May 28, 2026, Tractor Supply acquired VIP Petcare for a stated purchase price of $133.8 million. VIP operates clinics across roughly 2,700 retail locations, including about 1,700 Tractor Supply stores, and serves more than one million pets annually. The deal can increase repeat visits and connect veterinary services with Allivet pharmacy and merchandise sales. However, companion-animal sales have recently underperformed, so value depends on integration and cross-selling rather than the acquisition alone.

First-quarter warning signApril results preserved guidance, but weakening demand triggered a major reassessment by investors.

On April 21, 2026, first-quarter sales rose 3.6% to $3.59 billion and comparable-store sales increased 0.5%, while management initially kept its $2.13-$2.23 earnings outlook. Companion-animal demand remained below the company average, and customer transaction counts fell 1.0%. Financial reporting documented an approximately 11% stock decline after the release. That reaction cannot prove one specific cause, but it marked the market's growing concern that store growth was masking weaker underlying customer traffic.

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	$15.52B	$14.88B	$14.56B	$14.20B	$12.73B	$10.62B	$8.35B	$7.91B	$7.26B	$6.78B	$6.23B	$5.71B	$5.16B	$4.66B	$4.23B	$3.64B	$3.21B	$3.01B
Gross profit	$5.65B	$5.40B	$5.23B	$4.97B	$4.48B	$3.76B	$2.87B	$2.70B	$2.49B	$2.33B	$2.14B	$1.95B	$1.75B	$1.57B	$1.41B	$1.20B	$1.04B	$955.1M
Gross margin	36.42%	36.26%	35.92%	35.00%	35.17%	35.42%	34.38%	34.16%	34.34%	34.30%	34.42%	34.15%	33.95%	33.58%	33.24%	33.08%	32.49%	31.75%
Operating expenses	$4.19B	$3.93B	$3.75B	$3.54B	$3.17B	$2.76B	$2.13B	$2.00B	$1.81B	$1.63B	$1.49B	$1.36B	$1.24B	$1.13B	$1.05B	$937.4M	$850.3M	$776.7M
Operating income	$1.47B	$1.47B	$1.48B	$1.43B	$1.31B	$996.9M	$743.2M	$701.7M	$686.4M	$694.1M	$650.5M	$589.5M	$514.6M	$436.8M	$352.7M	$266.2M	$191.6M	$178.4M
Operating margin	9.45%	9.86%	10.16%	10.10%	10.26%	9.39%	8.90%	8.87%	9.46%	10.24%	10.45%	10.32%	9.96%	9.36%	8.33%	7.32%	5.97%	5.93%
EBITDA	$1.96B	$1.91B	$1.87B	$1.78B	$1.58B	$1.21B	$939.2M	$879.1M	$852.2M	$837.0M	$774.1M	$704.1M	$614.7M	$525.8M	$433.1M	$336.0M	$257.8M	$239.1M
EBITDA margin	12.63%	12.86%	12.86%	12.52%	12.39%	11.43%	11.25%	11.11%	11.74%	12.35%	12.43%	12.33%	11.90%	11.27%	10.23%	9.24%	8.04%	7.95%
Net income	$1.10B	$1.10B	$1.11B	$1.09B	$997.1M	$749.0M	$562.4M	$532.4M	$422.6M	$437.1M	$410.4M	$370.9M	$328.2M	$276.5M	$222.7M	$168.0M	$119.7M	$108.0M
Net profit margin	7.06%	7.40%	7.61%	7.66%	7.83%	7.05%	6.73%	6.73%	5.82%	6.45%	6.59%	6.49%	6.36%	5.93%	5.26%	4.62%	3.73%	3.59%
Basic EPSper basic share	$2.07	$2.05	$2.03	$1.96	$0.35	$0.26	$0.19	$0.17	$0.13	$0.13	$0.12	$0.11	$0.09	$0.08	$0.03	$0.02	$0.02	$0.01
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$2.06	$2.04	$2.02	$1.94	$0.34	$0.26	$0.19	$0.17	$0.13	$0.13	$0.12	$0.11	$0.09	$0.08	$0.03	$0.02	$0.02	$0.01

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

≈9.10%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.47.48M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of TSCO
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	≈9.10%47.48M shares
Invesco Ltd.	≈6.63%34.58M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	≈6.57%34.27M shares
Capital Research Global Investors	≈5.75%30.02M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	≈5.12%26.71M shares
Capital International Investors	≈4.95%25.83M shares
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/	≈4.51%23.54M shares
STATE STREET CORP	≈4.50%23.5M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	≈2.98%15.56M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	≈2.04%10.67M shares
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC	≈1.77%9.24M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	≈1.71%8.92M shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	≈1.43%7.45M shares
STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP	≈1.43%7.44M shares
NORGES BANK	≈1.30%6.8M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	≈1.05%5.47M shares
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN	≈1.00%5.2M shares
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP	≈0.99%5.14M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	≈0.98%5.13M shares
UBS AM, a distinct business unit of UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC	≈0.95%4.94M shares

Percentages use 521.85M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 27, 2026. ≈ compares the latest reported holding with a share total from a different date; it is not a confirmed current stake.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)35$42.69M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Feb 13, 2026Form 4	Yankee ColinEVP Chief Supply Chain Officer	SellCommon stock	5.7K	$55.33	$315.1K	45.5K
Feb 13, 2026Form 4	Yankee ColinEVP Chief Supply Chain Officer	SellCommon stock	781	$55.38	$43.3K	45.5K
Feb 13, 2026Form 4	Yankee ColinEVP Chief Supply Chain Officer	SellCommon stock	4.7K	$55.37	$259.9K	46.3K
Feb 11, 2026Form 4	Estep Jonathan SEVP Chief Merchandise Officer	SellCommon stock	59.7K	$54.03	$3.23M	80.9K
Feb 11, 2026Form 4	Mills Robert DEVP Chief Technology Officer	SellCommon stock	63.0K	$54.12	$3.41M	122.8K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO)

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