Wayfair Inc. (W)

Price$98.57Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-11 22:23 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares already assume a strong recovery, leaving too little downside protection for a value buyer.

Using about 137 million shares outstanding, the observed price implies roughly $14.2 billion of equity value. Wayfair generated $433 million of company-defined trailing free cash flow, meaning cash left after operating costs and capital investment, from the last four reported quarters. That is about 33 times trailing free cash flow. Adding $1.7 billion of net debt lifts total business value to roughly $16.0 billion, about 19 times trailing adjusted operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and selected costs. Those multiples require substantial further improvement.

Big pictureSales and cash generation are improving, but reported profits remain fragile after several loss-making years.

Revenue peaked at $14.1 billion in 2020, fell to $11.9 billion in 2024, then recovered to $12.5 billion in 2025. Second-quarter 2026 revenue grew 7.5%, and trailing revenue reached about $12.9 billion. Operating income improved from a $1.38 billion loss in 2022 to a $17 million profit in 2025, but trailing net income remains about a $321 million loss. Company-defined free cash flow improved from $329 million in 2025 to $433 million over the latest four quarters. The recovery is real, but not yet proven across a full demand cycle.

Business strengthCustomer momentum and cost control are improving, while debt and share dilution still weaken financial resilience.

At June 30, Wayfair held $1.1 billion of cash against $2.8 billion of debt, leaving roughly $1.7 billion of net debt. Current liabilities exceeded current assets by about $583 million, and stockholders' equity was negative $2.8 billion, so balance-sheet protection is limited. Customer trends improved: active customers rose 3.3%, orders rose 6%, and revenue per active customer rose 4.2% year over year. Capital allocation remains costly: debt conversions issued 5.4 million shares in the first half, stock compensation was $136 million, and no buybacks offset dilution.

What could change the storySustained cash growth could justify the optimism, while weaker demand or more dilution would break the case.

The bull case is that share gains persist: management said the home category contracted in the low single digits in late 2025 while Wayfair grew 7.8% excluding Germany, and U.S. revenue then rose 8.7% in the second quarter of 2026. The bear case is that demand remains choppy while interest costs and stock issuance absorb the recovery. At roughly $14.2 billion of equity value, annual free cash flow must reach about $710 million to $855 million to equal 5%-6% of that value, versus $433 million trailing. Reaching that range without new dilution would change the verdict.

AI: News

Second-quarter earnings surgeSecond-quarter results showed faster sales growth and stronger cash generation, sharply raising expectations for the recovery.

On August 4, Wayfair reported second-quarter revenue of $3.52 billion, up 7.5%, with U.S. revenue up 8.7% and free cash flow of $301 million. Adjusted earnings also beat consensus estimates. The shares closed about 30% higher on unusually heavy volume. The earnings beat and stronger outlook clearly improved expectations, although the size of the move may also have reflected investor positioning and short covering; price timing alone cannot assign the entire gain to operating news.

Store rollout acceleratesWayfair accelerated its store rollout, testing whether physical locations can bring in new customers profitably.

On August 3, Wayfair announced a 95,000-square-foot Pittsburgh store planned for 2027, and the shares rose about 5% that day. The timing suggests the announcement helped sentiment, but does not prove it caused the move. On August 26, Wayfair announced an 85,000-square-foot Florida location that would become its tenth planned large-format store. Management says its Chicago store attracts many shoppers new to the brand, making customer acquisition the key economic test for the physical expansion.

Debt reshaping and dilutionDebt conversions reduced maturities but used cash and issued shares, trading balance-sheet risk for dilution.

By June 29, Wayfair had settled conversion of $444 million of 2028 notes with $444 million of cash plus 4.5 million shares, following an earlier conversion that used $250 million of cash and 0.9 million shares. It also issued $400 million of secured notes carrying 7.125% interest in May. No reliable discrete stock reaction can be isolated from these transactions. Their importance is fundamental: they reduced near-term maturities, but consumed liquidity, increased interest costs and expanded the share count.

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012
Revenue	$12.46B	$11.85B	$12.00B	$12.22B	$13.71B	$14.14B	$9.13B	$6.78B	$4.72B	$3.38B	$2.25B	$1.32B	$915.8M	$601.0M
Gross profit	$3.77B	$3.57B	$3.67B	$3.42B	$3.90B	$4.11B	$2.15B	$1.59B	$1.12B	$807.8M	$540.7M	$311.1M	$224.2M	$145.1M
Gross margin	30.22%	30.16%	30.55%	27.96%	28.41%	29.07%	23.52%	23.41%	23.70%	23.90%	24.03%	23.59%	24.48%	24.15%
Operating expenses	$3.75B	$4.04B	$4.48B	$4.80B	$3.99B	$3.75B	$3.08B	$2.06B	$1.35B	$1.00B	$622.1M	$458.9M	$240.3M	$166.5M
Operating income	$17.0M	−$461.0M	−$813.0M	−$1.38B	−$94.0M	$360.0M	−$930.0M	−$473.3M	−$235.5M	−$196.2M	−$81.3M	−$147.8M	−$16.0M	−$21.4M
Operating margin	0.14%	−3.89%	−6.77%	−11.33%	−0.69%	2.55%	−10.19%	−6.98%	−4.99%	−5.80%	−3.62%	−11.20%	−1.75%	−3.56%
EBITDA	$322.0M	−$74.0M	−$396.0M	−$1.01B	$228.0M	$646.0M	−$738.0M	−$349.7M	−$148.4M	−$140.6M	−$48.9M	−$125.8M	−$2.9M	−$12.1M
EBITDA margin	2.58%	−0.62%	−3.30%	−8.29%	1.66%	4.57%	−8.09%	−5.16%	−3.14%	−4.16%	−2.17%	−9.54%	−0.32%	−2.01%
Net income	−$313.0M	−$492.0M	−$738.0M	−$1.33B	−$131.0M	$185.0M	−$985.0M	−$504.1M	−$244.6M	−$194.4M	−$77.4M	−$148.1M	−$15.5M	−$21.1M
Net profit margin	−2.51%	−4.15%	−6.15%	−10.89%	−0.96%	1.31%	−10.79%	−7.44%	−5.18%	−5.75%	−3.44%	−11.23%	−1.70%	−3.50%
Basic EPSper basic share	-$2.44	-$4.01	-$6.47	-$12.54	-$1.26	$1.93	-$10.68	-$5.63	-$2.81	-$2.29	-$0.92	-$2.97	-$0.99	-$0.80
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$2.44	-$4.01	-$6.47	-$12.54	-$1.26	$1.86	-$10.68	-$5.63	-$2.81	-$2.29	-$0.92	-$2.97	-$0.99	-$0.80

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

14.09%of listed shares

FMR LLC16.28M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of W
Holder	% owned
FMR LLC	14.09%16.28M shares
Capital World Investors	9.68%11.18M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	4.36%5.04M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.14%4.78M shares
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC	3.91%4.51M shares
Jupiter Topco LLC	3.87%4.47M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	3.64%4.2M shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.69%3.1M shares
SPRUCE HOUSE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC	2.52%2.91M shares
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	2.43%2.81M shares
GREAT HILL PARTNERS, L.P.	2.41%2.79M shares
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	2.26%2.61M shares
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.	2.14%2.47M shares
Castle Hook Partners LP	2.13%2.46M shares
Contour Asset Management LLC	2.07%2.4M shares
Prescott General Partners LLC	2.01%2.32M shares
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP	1.96%2.26M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.66%1.92M shares
STATE STREET CORP	1.59%1.84M shares
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.	1.42%1.64M shares

Percentages use 115.5M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys1$12.0K disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)287$342.19M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Apr 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Conine StevenDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	700	$79.26	$55.5K	429.1K
Apr 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Conine StevenDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	5.8K	$78.57	$458.8K	429.8K
Apr 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Conine StevenDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	600	$77.54	$46.5K	435.6K
Apr 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Shah NirajChief Executive Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	400	$79.47	$31.8K	429.1K
Apr 24, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Shah NirajChief Executive Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	5.1K	$78.66	$404.1K	429.5K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Wayfair Inc. (W)

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