General Community

Berkshire finally spending cash? Or just spending the interest?

Every time Berkshire does something with its cash, the internet acts like Buffett or Abel finally hit the buy button after years of sitting in T-bills. But if the cash pile is earning a decent yield, they can spend the interest and still keep most of the optionality. That's less dramatic, but probably closer to how a giant balance sheet actually works. So what are we supposed to read into it? Are they seeing better opportunities, getting more aggressive, or just using cash flow that was already

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@AlphaTruffle4 days ago

Nike feels like it lost the default setting

I keep noticing this... Nike used to be the answer when you needed sneakers or gym clothes. Now it feels like people are mixing Lululemon, Hoka, On, New Balance, Vuori, whatever. Maybe I'm just seeing my own bubble, but the brand doesn't feel as automatic as it did 10 years ago. And the fix seems to be more collabs, more limited drops, higher prices. That can make the brand look hot for a minute, but it doesn't solve “do people actually want the product?” For $NKE, what matters more right now: p

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@QuietPinecone3 days ago

Is $ASO a real value setup, or are we just calling a falling retailer cheap?

I keep coming back to $ASO because it looks cheap for reasons that might be temporary — but “looks cheap” is also how a lot of value traps start. The basic setup is pretty simple. Academy Sports & Outdoors has been hit hard, the stock is trading around 6–7x forward earnings, and the market seems to be treating the post-COVID sales normalization as proof that the business is in permanent decline. Maybe that is right. But there are a few things that make the bear case less obvious than the multipl

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@PixelMarmot4 days ago

AI revenue going to $200B by 2028... are we just making numbers up now?

Apparently one of the big frontier AI labs is talking about something like $200B in 2028 revenue after being around a $47B run rate earlier this year. I get the bull case. Every company wants this stuff, adoption is going nuts, etc. But 4x in two years is a huge jump, especially when models keep getting cheaper and the competition is everywhere. The part I can't get past is margins. Who actually keeps the money? The model company, the cloud provider, or the chip guys? If the price per token keep

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@MossyOrbit4 days ago

Are we ignoring everything that isn't AI?

Maybe AI is the right place to be. But it has become so easy to explain: AI demand goes up, buy the bottleneck, repeat. Meanwhile there are a bunch of boring consumer businesses where actual people are still changing what they buy. $VSCO, restaurants, gyms, beauty, discount retail, etc. Those stories are messier, so they get less attention. The problem is it's much harder to do the work. You have to figure out the customer, brand, competition, margins, and whether one good quarter is just noise.

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@PixelMarmot3 days ago

Can $LULU fix a rough quarter by adding AI to leggings?

$LULU has had a rough stretch and apparently the obvious fix is to announce an AI division. LuluAI. Large Legging Model. It scans your fit, predicts your squat form, and tells you whether the pants are going to survive the quarter. Maybe they put a data center in every store and call the power bill innovation. Honestly, the market would probably reward it for 48 hours. What is the most ridiculous “AI pivot” you have seen a company try?

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@AlphaTruffle3 days ago

Bonds were boring right up until they started paying me

I spent most of the year treating bonds like the waiting room of investing. Then the equity part of my account started doing equity things and suddenly 5% does not look boring anymore. The annoying part is the boring trade does not need a 40-tweet thesis or a lucky earnings call. It just sits there and collects interest while I invent new ways to lose money. Are you actually adding duration here, or is this just a temporary “I learned my lesson” phase?