Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)

Price$72.35Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-06 07:53 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares look expensive because today’s price already assumes several more years of strong execution.

Affirm’s market value is about $25.7 billion. Its Investor Forum showed last-twelve-month earnings of $1.10 per share, putting the stock near 70 times recent earnings. Management’s medium-term target is $3–$4 per share once annual purchase volume reaches $100 billion; the observed price is still about 19–26 times those future earnings. That is not impossible for a fast grower, but it offers little value-investor margin of safety before the growth and profit targets are actually delivered. Affirm Holdings, Inc.+1

Big pictureProfit and cash generation improved sharply, but lending cash flow needs more caution than a normal business.

The supplied history shows net income improving from a $518 million loss in fiscal 2024 to a $52 million profit in fiscal 2025, then about $382 million over the latest four reported quarters. Operating cash flow over those four quarters was about $1.01 billion; after roughly $223 million of capital spending, simple free cash flow was about $787 million. Free cash flow means operating cash left after capital spending. For a lender, though, loan purchases sit in investing cash flow, so that figure is not fully distributable cash. SEC

Business strengthAffirm has real scale and funding depth, while credit losses remain manageable rather than risk-free.

Third-quarter purchase volume reached $11.6 billion, up 35%, while active consumers rose 22% to 26.8 million and Affirm Card volume rose 146%. Corporate liquidity was about $2.5 billion against roughly $1.1 billion of convertible debt. Most other debt funds loans inside special-purpose securitization and warehouse structures, whose creditors generally can claim only those loan assets rather than Affirm’s general assets. Credit still matters: 30-plus-day delinquencies rose 0.29 percentage point to 2.8%, while the loss allowance reached 6.0% of loans. Lower funding costs helped profitability and could reverse. SEC+2SEC+2

What could change the storyThe bull case needs continued growth and lower dilution; worsening credit would quickly weaken the valuation.

The strongest bull case is management’s $100 billion purchase-volume framework: operating profit equal to 20–25% of revenue, $3–$4 earnings per share, and annual share-count growth no higher than 3%. The bear case is that dilution, meaning ownership spread across more shares, is already meaningful: total Class A and B shares rose about 3.0% in the nine months through March, while fiscal 2025 stock compensation was $321 million versus $250 million of buybacks. The thesis weakens if 30-plus-day delinquencies move materially above 2.8% or funding costs rise. Affirm Holdings, Inc.+2SEC+2

AI: News

Q3 profit inflectionAffirm raised its outlook after strong growth and another profitable quarter, reinforcing the earnings turnaround.

On May 7, Affirm reported third-quarter purchase volume of $11.6 billion, up 35%, total revenue of $1.039 billion, up 33%, operating income of $88 million versus an $8 million loss, and net income of $103 million. It raised fiscal-year guidance to $49.265–$49.565 billion of purchase volume and operating profit equal to 8.9–9.4% of revenue. Reports showed a modest positive after-hours move, but shares softened in the next regular session, so the price response was mixed rather than a clean endorsement. SEC+2Investing.com Philippines+2

Investor Forum targetsManagement set much higher long-term earnings goals while Google expanded Affirm into artificial-intelligence shopping.

At the May 12 Investor Forum, Affirm targeted $100 billion of annual purchase volume, operating profit equal to 20–25% of revenue, $3–$4 earnings per share, and annual share-count growth of no more than 3%. The same day, Google said Affirm would roll into Google Search, including AI Mode, and Gemini through Google Pay. Shares were reported up about 2% around the Google announcement, but the concurrent investor event makes exact attribution uncertain. The value mechanism is broader distribution plus substantially higher profit conversion if management executes. Affirm Holdings, Inc.+2Affirm Holdings, Inc.+2

CPP funding expansionA larger CPP Investments deal added funding capacity and reduced the equity needed to support growth.

On June 4, CPP Investments renewed a 24-month forward-flow agreement with a $1.7 billion commitment that can rise to $2.2 billion and is expected to support about $8 billion of consumer-loan volume. CPP Investments had already purchased nearly $14 billion of Affirm assets since 2019, while Affirm reported total funding capacity of $28.2 billion. Forward flow means institutional investors buy originated loans, letting Affirm grow transaction volume without keeping every loan on its own balance sheet. No clean stock move can be isolated to this announcement alone. Affirm Holdings, Inc.

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Financial statements

	2026	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Revenue	$1.44B	$1.11B	$826.0M	$626.9M	$559.2M	$429.4M	$276.1M	$140.3M
Operating expenses	$2.03B	$1.84B	$1.74B	$1.70B	$1.57B	—	—	—
Operating income	$417.0M	−$87.3M	−$615.8M	−$1.20B	−$866.0M	−$383.7M	−$107.8M	−$127.4M
Operating margin	28.88%	−7.83%	−74.56%	−191.54%	−154.87%	−89.35%	−39.04%	−90.85%
EBITDA	$720.3M	$137.8M	−$446.8M	−$1.07B	−$813.3M	−$363.7M	−$98.3M	−$122.2M
EBITDA margin	49.89%	12.37%	−54.09%	−170.07%	−145.44%	−84.70%	−35.62%	−87.10%
Net income	$1.93B	$52.2M	−$517.8M	−$985.3M	−$707.4M	−$441.0M	−$112.6M	−$120.5M
Net profit margin	133.65%	4.68%	−62.68%	−157.17%	−126.50%	−102.71%	−40.78%	−85.87%
Basic EPSper basic share	$5.76	$0.16	-$1.67	-$3.34	-$2.51	-$2.78	-$2.63	-$2.84
Diluted EPSper diluted share	$5.53	$0.15	-$1.67	-$3.34	-$2.51	-$2.94	-$2.63	-$2.84

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

8.77%of listed shares

Capital Research Global Investors26M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of AFRM
Holder	% owned
Capital Research Global Investors	8.77%26M shares
Capital World Investors	7.79%23.12M shares
MORGAN STANLEY	7.75%23M shares
BlackRock, Inc.	6.61%19.61M shares
FMR LLC	5.93%17.58M shares
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	5.64%16.72M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	4.15%12.32M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	4.01%11.89M shares
STATE STREET CORP	2.14%6.35M shares
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	1.97%5.86M shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	1.93%5.71M shares
Winslow Capital Management, LLC	1.54%4.58M shares
Durable Capital Partners LP	1.49%4.43M shares
NORGES BANK	1.24%3.68M shares
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	0.96%2.84M shares
UBS Group AG	0.85%2.51M shares
D1 Capital Partners L.P.	0.64%1.91M shares
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO	0.63%1.88M shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	0.61%1.81M shares
SEI INVESTMENTS CO	0.57%1.71M shares

Percentages use 296.64M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)113$333.99M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 26, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Linford MichaelChief Operating Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	100.0K	$80.04	$8.00M	118.0K
May 13, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Watson Noel BertramDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	2.0K	$65.00	$130.0K	36.1K
Apr 14, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Watson Noel BertramDirector	SellClass A Common Stock	2.0K	$55.00	$110.0K	38.1K
Jan 5, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Levchin Max RChief Executive Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	113.1K	$81.12	$9.18M	0
Jan 5, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Levchin Max RChief Executive Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	553.6K	$80.52	$44.57M	113.1K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)

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