Greif, Inc (GEF)

Price$79.48Cached quoteAs of 2026-10-01 15:14 UTC

AI: Fair-priced

Price checkThe shares look reasonably valued, with stronger finances offset by demanding cash-generation assumptions.

At roughly $4.4 billion of market value for all common shares plus about $742 million of net debt, meaning borrowings less cash, investors value the whole business near $5.2 billion. That is about 8.3 times management’s 2026 adjusted earnings guidance before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, and about 14 times guided adjusted free cash flow. Those are reasonable, not distressed, multiples. Because demand is still weak and current cash conversion is uneven, the price offers limited margin for missed guidance.

Big pictureRecent profit improvement is real, but cash conversion still needs to prove it can hold.

Fiscal 2025 was weak on cash, though it was an 11-month transition year: operating cash flow was $58.6 million versus $356.0 million in fiscal 2024, while capital spending was $143.8 million. The latest quarter improved sharply on earnings: adjusted profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 24.7% to $183.4 million. Yet adjusted free cash flow, cash left after running and investing in the business after company-specified adjustments, was only $57.7 million. Full-year guidance of $305-$325 million requires a much stronger final quarter.

Business strengthAsset sales transformed company finances, while cost cuts and buybacks strengthened each remaining share’s claim.

By June 30, total debt had fallen to $1.03 billion and net debt to $741.9 million, down about $1.69 billion year over year; borrowings relative to earnings under the lender’s definition fell from 3.1 to 1.1 times. Greif also reached $90 million of annualized cost savings. In the first nine months of 2026 it spent $150.1 million buying back 2.19 million shares across both classes, while raising the Class A dividend 10.7%. That leaves fewer shares dividing future profits.

What could change the storyA real industrial recovery could unlock upside, while weak volumes or cash generation would erase it.

The bull case is that cost savings reach at least $120 million by fiscal 2027, recent price increases stick, and depressed industrial volumes recover, pushing earnings and cash above current guidance. The bear case is visible now: third-quarter volumes fell 3.1% in Durable Metal and 4.0% in Sustainable Fiber, while higher raw-material and transport costs still required price increases. With the shares near their one-year high, the current valuation needs guided cash generation to arrive and buybacks to remain disciplined.

AI: News

Third-quarter earnings reboundQuarterly profit jumped and full-year cash guidance held, strengthening confidence that cost cuts are working.

On July 28, Greif reported third-quarter net income of $78.8 million, up 156.7%, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $183.4 million, up 24.7%. It guided fiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow to $305-$325 million and that adjusted earnings measure to $615-$635 million. The Class A shares closed 4.6% higher the next session; the timing is consistent with a positive reaction, but it does not prove the release caused the move.

Capital returns stepped upGreif raised its dividend and committed to more buybacks after sharply reducing debt.

The board raised the quarterly Class A dividend by 10.7% on June 2. On July 28, Greif said it intended to repurchase up to $150 million more under existing authorizations. Its June-quarter filing shows $150.1 million of repurchases during the first nine months and 2.19 million shares bought across both classes. This supports per-share value if purchases remain disciplined, although buying heavily after a large share-price rise would reduce the benefit.

Packaging prices increasedNew packaging price increases aim to protect profitability as demand improves and input costs rise.

On June 10, Greif announced a $60-per-short-ton increase for uncoated recycled paperboard and at least 6.5% increases for tube, core and protective packaging, effective in July. Management cited stronger demand alongside higher raw-material, adhesive, transportation and other input costs. The move matters because successful pass-through can preserve profitability, but it also confirms cost inflation remains active. Third-quarter results later showed pricing helped several segments even while volumes stayed weak in metal and fiber.

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Total cash / debt

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Financial statements

	2025	2024 · Oct 31	2024 · Sep 30	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008
Revenue	$3.93B	$4.35B	$3.97B	$4.18B	$6.35B	$5.56B	$4.51B	$4.59B	$3.87B	$3.64B	$3.32B	$3.62B	$4.24B	$4.22B	$4.13B	$4.25B	$3.46B	$2.79B	$3.79B
Gross profit	$871.5M	$899.1M	$817.8M	$928.6M	$1.29B	$1.09B	$914.7M	$959.9M	$788.9M	$714.7M	$684.9M	$669.8M	$811.0M	$832.2M	$779.5M	$798.3M	$701.4M	$499.6M	$704.8M
Gross margin	22.16%	20.65%	20.58%	22.24%	20.24%	19.67%	20.26%	20.89%	20.37%	19.64%	20.61%	18.52%	19.13%	19.72%	18.88%	18.79%	20.26%	17.89%	18.59%
Operating expenses	$703.9M	$561.3M	$504.7M	$501.8M	$664.2M	$507.8M	$609.8M	$560.8M	$418.4M	$415.2M	$459.3M	$477.0M	$561.7M	$490.6M	$498.5M	$468.1M	$380.4M	$299.7M	$322.5M
Operating income	$167.6M	$337.8M	$313.1M	$426.8M	$621.2M	$585.2M	$304.9M	$399.1M	$370.5M	$299.5M	$225.6M	$192.8M	$249.3M	$341.6M	$281.0M	$330.2M	$321.0M	$199.9M	$382.3M
Operating margin	4.26%	7.76%	7.88%	10.22%	9.78%	10.53%	6.75%	8.69%	9.56%	8.23%	6.79%	5.33%	5.88%	8.09%	6.80%	7.77%	9.27%	7.16%	10.09%
EBITDA	$404.5M	$599.1M	—	$657.4M	$837.8M	$819.6M	$547.4M	$605.2M	$497.4M	$420.0M	$353.3M	$327.4M	$405.1M	$499.2M	$436.6M	$474.5M	$437.0M	$302.5M	$488.7M
EBITDA margin	10.28%	13.76%	—	15.74%	13.19%	14.75%	12.12%	13.17%	12.84%	11.54%	10.63%	9.05%	9.56%	11.83%	10.57%	11.17%	12.62%	10.83%	12.89%
Net income	$840.0M	$268.8M	$243.8M	$359.2M	$376.7M	$390.7M	$108.8M	$171.0M	$209.4M	$118.6M	$74.9M	$71.9M	$91.5M	$144.7M	$118.1M	$174.7M	$202.8M	$110.6M	$241.7M
Net profit margin	21.36%	6.17%	6.14%	8.60%	5.93%	7.03%	2.41%	3.72%	5.41%	3.26%	2.25%	1.99%	2.16%	3.43%	2.86%	4.11%	5.86%	3.96%	6.38%
Basic EPSper basic share	—	$4.54	—	$6.22	$6.36	$6.57	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Diluted EPSper diluted share	—	$4.52	—	$6.15	$6.30	$6.54	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Review official source filings ↗

Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

14.18%of listed shares

BlackRock, Inc.3.51M shares · Jun 30, 2026

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of GEF
Holder	% owned
BlackRock, Inc.	14.18%3.51M shares
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP	8.09%2.01M shares
VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC	5.38%1.33M shares
VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	5.22%1.29M shares
FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC.	4.94%1.22M shares
STATE STREET CORP	3.86%955.76K shares
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	3.44%851.22K shares
Thrivent Financial for Lutherans	3.42%847.8K shares
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC	3.38%838.55K shares
DEPRINCE RACE & ZOLLO INC	3.25%806.33K shares
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	2.83%702.13K shares
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC	1.86%461.88K shares
Medina Value Partners, LLC	1.68%415.19K shares
Invesco Ltd.	1.67%414.04K shares
GAMCO INVESTORS, INC. ET AL	1.66%410.57K shares
GABELLI FUNDS LLC	1.52%377.65K shares
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	1.29%319.17K shares
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC	1.28%316.04K shares
NORTHERN TRUST CORP	1.26%311.97K shares
Bank of New York Mellon Corp	1.26%311.31K shares

Percentages use 24.78M shares of this listed class outstanding on Jun 30, 2026.

Gray completes the 100% scale. Reported positions may overlap; holders have different reporting dates.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys36$5.60M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)43$16.18M disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 10, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Bergwall TimothySVP, Chief Commercial Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	2.0K	$65.26	$130.5K	65.8K
May 11, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Bergwall TimothySVP, Chief Commercial Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	2.0K	$67.66	$135.3K	67.8K
Apr 10, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Bergwall TimothySVP, Chief Commercial Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	2.0K	$70.42	$140.8K	69.8K
Mar 10, 2026Form 4 · 10b5-1	Bergwall TimothySVP, Chief Commercial Officer	SellClass A Common Stock	2.0K	$67.49	$135.0K	71.8K
Mar 2, 2026Form 4	Sathyanarayanan BalaEVP, Chief Human Resources Off	SellClass A Common Stock	8.5K	$71.99	$613.6K	22.5K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

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Greif, Inc (GEF)

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