Nokia Corp (NOK)

Price$11.13Cached quoteAs of 2026-09-11 22:17 UTC

AI: Overvalued

Price checkThe shares price in faster growth than Nokia has yet proved it can sustain.

The market now values Nokia at roughly €48 billion, while 2025 produced only €651 million of net income and about €1.47 billion of free cash flow, meaning cash left after running and investing in the business. That is only about a 3% free-cash-flow yield. Even using Nokia's stronger 2026 outlook of €2.1-€2.6 billion comparable operating profit, the equity value is around twenty times the midpoint. Strong AI growth can justify a premium, but today's valuation requires substantial, durable profit expansion.

Big pictureCash generation is real, but Nokia's profits have been too uneven to deserve full confidence.

Revenue fell from €23.8 billion in 2022 to €19.2 billion in 2024 before recovering to €19.9 billion in 2025. Operating income also dropped from €2.30 billion in 2022 to €885 million in 2025. Cash has been steadier: operating cash flow ranged from €1.32 billion to €2.63 billion during 2021-2025, and 2025 free cash flow was about €1.47 billion. The contrast matters because network spending is cyclical. Investors are currently assuming the recent AI and cloud acceleration can overcome that historical volatility.

Business strengthA strong balance sheet and booming data-center demand give Nokia meaningful protection and upside.

Nokia ended 2025 with €5.46 billion of cash against €3.41 billion of debt, leaving about €2.05 billion of net cash; by Q2 2026, Nokia reported €2.8 billion of net cash and interest-bearing investments. The growth engine has also strengthened: Q2 Network Infrastructure sales rose 12% at constant currencies, Optical Networks grew 20%, and sales to AI and cloud customers rose 105% to €446 million. The main question is whether those rapidly growing businesses become large enough to transform group-wide profits rather than merely offset slower telecom spending.

What could change the storyAI orders could justify today's premium, while stalled conversion to cash would expose valuation risk.

The strongest bull case is Nokia's €2.8 billion of Q2 AI and cloud orders, about half of which management expects to become revenue within twelve months, plus the larger optical position created by Infinera. The bear case is that supply constraints, higher memory costs and telecom cyclicality prevent sales growth from becoming durable cash growth. Capital allocation also deserves scrutiny: buybacks have returned cash, but acquisition-related shares and NVIDIA's 166.4 million new-share investment show dilution can recur. Sustained free cash flow comfortably above €2 billion would make the valuation easier to defend.

AI: News

AI sales doubledSecond-quarter results showed Nokia's data-center push accelerating fast enough to lift profit expectations.

On July 23, Nokia reported Q2 sales of €4.82 billion and comparable operating profit of €434 million, above the €382 million analyst consensus cited by Reuters. AI and cloud customer sales rose 105% to €446 million, while related orders reached €2.8 billion. Nokia's full-year comparable operating-profit outlook became €2.1-€2.6 billion after a reporting adjustment. Reuters said the shares were roughly stable after the release, so the fundamental improvement did not produce a clear immediate price surge.

China footprint shrinksPlans to close most mainland China sites underline a structurally smaller business in that market.

Reuters reported on August 18 that Nokia plans to close nearly all of its mainland China sites by year-end and make substantial workforce reductions, with Nokia confirming that it is realigning operations after years of decline there. The ADR fell over the following sessions, although timing alone cannot establish that the restructuring caused the decline. Economically, a smaller China footprint can reduce costs, but it also confirms that Nokia is losing scale in a historically important telecom-equipment market.

First-quarter AI breakoutAn April earnings beat convinced investors that artificial-intelligence networking could become a major growth engine.

On April 23, comparable operating profit jumped 54% year over year to €281 million, beating the €250 million analyst estimate reported by Reuters. Nokia also raised growth ambitions for its artificial-intelligence business. Reuters reported that the shares reached their highest level in sixteen years following the results. That reaction matters because it shows how much of the current valuation rests on expectations that data-center and AI networking will reshape Nokia's slower-growth telecom equipment profile.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	€19.89B	€19.22B	€21.14B	€23.76B	€22.20B	€21.85B	€23.32B	€22.56B	€23.15B	€23.64B	€12.56B
Gross profit	€8.66B	€8.86B	€8.55B	€10.10B	€8.83B	€8.19B	€8.26B	€8.31B	€9.14B	€8.52B	€5.60B
Gross margin	43.54%	46.12%	40.43%	42.51%	39.79%	37.49%	35.44%	36.84%	39.48%	36.06%	44.56%
Research & development	€4.86B	€4.51B	€4.28B	€4.50B	€4.21B	€4.09B	€4.53B	€4.78B	€4.92B	€5.00B	€2.08B
Operating expenses	€7.77B	€6.89B	€6.81B	€7.80B	€6.68B	€7.31B	€7.78B	€8.37B	€9.12B	€9.62B	€3.90B
Operating income	€885.0M	€1.97B	€1.73B	€2.30B	€2.16B	€885.0M	€485.0M	−€59.0M	€16.0M	−€1.10B	€1.70B
Operating margin	4.45%	10.25%	8.20%	9.68%	9.72%	4.05%	2.08%	−0.26%	0.07%	−4.65%	13.51%
EBITDA	€2.00B	€2.94B	€2.75B	€3.37B	€3.25B	€2.02B	€2.15B	€1.40B	€1.61B	€494.0M	€1.98B
EBITDA margin	10.08%	15.31%	12.99%	14.19%	14.65%	9.23%	9.20%	6.19%	6.94%	2.09%	15.79%
Net income	€660.0M	€1.28B	€679.0M	€4.26B	€1.65B	−€2.52B	€11.0M	−€335.0M	−€1.46B	−€927.0M	€2.47B
Net profit margin	3.32%	6.68%	3.21%	17.92%	7.41%	−11.51%	0.05%	−1.48%	−6.30%	−3.92%	19.65%
Basic EPSper basic share	€0.12	€0.23	€0.12	€0.76	€0.29	-€0.45	€0.00	-€0.06	-€0.26	-€0.13	€0.67
Diluted EPSper diluted share	€0.12	€0.23	€0.12	€0.75	€0.29	-€0.45	€0.00	-€0.06	-€0.26	-€0.13	€0.63

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Owners

Reported shareholders

Reference date Jun 30, 2026

Reported holdings Number of shares

View holders

Top 20 reported holders of NOK
Holder	Shares held
NVIDIA CORP	166.39M
FMR LLC	155.4M
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP	38.17M
ALKEON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC	36M
MORGAN STANLEY	33.21M
MARSHALL WACE, LLP	33.02M
VOYA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC	27.27M
Capital World Investors	25.6M
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	25.49M
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP	23.75M
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC	20.3M
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC	18.64M
Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd	18.35M
Clearbridge Investments, LLC	14.88M
CAPSTONE INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC	14.6M
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	13.58M
FOLKETRYGDFONDET	11.48M
Thrivent Financial for Lutherans	11.39M
BlackRock, Inc.	10.53M
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.	10.21M

Bars compare reported share counts. A matching total for this share class and reporting period is unavailable, so percentages are not shown.

Source: SEC Form 13F ↗Updated Sep 29, 2026 · Quarterly data

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys0$0.00 disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)0$0.00 disclosed value

No insider transactions transactions were reported in the stored SEC coverage.

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Community posts

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@tickerstat21 days ago
Nokia and C3IA agree framework for UK defense communications work
Nokia ($NOK) Defense and C3IA signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on digital capabilities for UK defense operations. The partnership combines Nokia’s connectivity technology with C3IA’s systems engineering, integration and s ...
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@tickerstat23 days ago
Nokia deploys automated network-attack protection for Spain’s ESpanix
ESpanix deployed Nokia’s ($NOK) Deepfield Defender to help protect its Spanish internet-exchange infrastructure against distributed denial-of-service attacks. The deployment covers facilities in Madrid and Barcelona and supports a network c ...
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Nokia Corp (NOK)

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Nokia and C3IA agree framework for UK defense communications work

Nokia deploys automated network-attack protection for Spain’s ESpanix