FORD MOTOR CO (F)

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AI: Fair-priced

Price checkFord looks fairly priced because strong cash guidance is balanced by difficult recovery assumptions.

At the August 14 close, Ford was $14.37; an indicative August 17 pre-market quote was $14.36. Using 3.987 billion second-quarter weighted shares gives roughly $57.3 billion of market value. Management’s $6-$7 billion 2026 adjusted free-cash-flow guide—cash left after operations and investment, with company-defined adjustments—implies a 10.5%-12.2% yield, or 8.2-9.5 times cash flow. The regular $0.60 annualized dividend yields 4.2%. That looks attractive, but only if the back-loaded cash plan lands, supporting a Fair-priced verdict.

Big pictureRecent profit improved, but Ford’s cash generation remains uneven across the vehicle cycle.

Reported earnings are volatile: net income moved from $5.9 billion in 2024 to an $8.2 billion loss in 2025, then a $1.2 billion profit in first-half 2026. Cash held up better: supplied operating cash less capital spending was $6.7 billion in 2024 and $12.5 billion in 2025. Yet official adjusted free cash flow was only $0.2 billion in first-half 2026, so reaching the $6-$7 billion full-year target requires $5.8-$6.8 billion in the second half. This pattern weakens confidence in one-year valuation math.

Business strengthProfitable trucks, commercial vehicles, and financing provide support, while electric vehicles consume cash.

Ford Blue and Ford Pro earned $1.1 billion and $1.7 billion before interest and taxes in Q2, while Model e lost $919 million; Ford Credit added $757 million before tax. June liquidity was $43.4 billion, including $22.3 billion of company cash, against $23.6 billion of debt excluding Ford Credit. Credit’s $137.3 billion debt mainly funds customer loans and leases, so it differs from factory debt. First-half dividends were $1.2 billion and buybacks $311 million, yet diluted shares rose 1.3% year over year, showing modest dilution.

What could change the storyTruck supply recovery creates upside, while stalled cash conversion or electric losses would weaken value.

The bull case needs aluminum supply recovery to lift scarce, high-profit F-Series deliveries, the $1 billion warranty and material savings plan, and Model e losses falling from the guided $4 billion. The bear case is visible: first-half wholesale units fell 8%, Ford Pro profit fell $600 million in Q2, and electric-vehicle sales weakened. Evidence would turn positive if second-half adjusted free cash flow exceeds $5.8 billion without delaying investment. Missing that threshold, or renewed truck disruption, would make today’s roughly 1.6-times book value look expensive.

$14.37 price considered

AI: News

Guidance raisedFord lifted its profit and cash outlook after stronger core operations offset lower vehicle volumes.

On July 28, Ford raised 2026 adjusted profit before interest and taxes to $10-$11 billion from $8.5-$10.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow to $6-$7 billion from $5-$6 billion. Q2 adjusted profit rose 17% to $2.5 billion, though revenue fell 4% and the reported net loss was $1.3 billion after $4.2 billion of special charges. Shares closed 2.1% higher July 29; the timing suggests a favorable reaction but does not prove earnings alone caused it.

Truck supply squeezeSecond-quarter sales fell as an aluminum shortage constrained Ford’s most important pickup line.

On July 2, Ford reported 549,200 U.S. Q2 sales, down 10.3%; F-Series fell 11% and electric vehicles 40.7%. Ford said earlier aluminum-supplier fires delayed commercial production and expected fuller recovery in the second half. Because large pickups drive much of Ford Pro and Ford Blue profit, production recovery matters more than the headline unit decline. Shares closed 2.1% lower that day, but the move cannot be attributed solely to the sales report.

Geely factory partnershipFord partnered with Geely to fill its Spanish factory and share future vehicle costs.

On July 23, Ford and Geely announced a venture owned 66% by Ford and 34% by Geely at Valencia, pending approvals. Geely plans two electric sport-utility vehicles there from 2028; the companies will also jointly develop a multi-energy crossover while Ford continues Kuga and adds Bronco production. The arrangement could improve factory use and spread development expense, but benefits are distant and terms were not fully quantified, so the near-term value impact remains uncertain.

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Financial statements

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	$187.27B	$184.99B	$176.19B	$158.06B	$136.34B	$127.14B	$155.90B	$160.34B	$156.78B	$151.80B	$149.56B	$144.08B	$146.92B	$133.56B	$135.60B	$128.95B	$116.28B	$143.58B	$170.57B
Research & development	$9.40B	$8.00B	$8.20B	$7.80B	$7.60B	$7.10B	$7.40B	$8.20B	$8.00B	$7.30B	$6.70B	$6.70B	$6.20B	$5.50B	$5.30B	$5.00B	$4.70B	$7.10B	—
Operating income	−$9.17B	$5.22B	$5.46B	$6.28B	$4.52B	−$4.41B	$574.0M	$3.20B	$4.88B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
EBITDAderived	$6.80B	$12.79B	$13.15B	$13.95B	$11.84B	$4.37B	$11.07B	$12.59B	$14.12B	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	−$8.16B	$5.88B	$4.35B	−$1.98B	$17.94B	−$1.28B	$84.0M	$3.69B	$7.76B	$4.60B	$7.37B	$1.23B	$11.95B	$5.61B	$20.21B	$6.56B	$2.72B	−$14.77B	−$2.79B
Basic EPSper diluted share	-$2.06	$1.48	$1.09	-$0.49	$4.49	-$0.32	$0.01	$0.93	$1.94	$1.16	$1.86	$0.31	$3.04	$1.47	$5.33	$1.90	$0.91	-$6.50	-$1.41
Diluted EPSper diluted share	-$2.06	$1.46	$1.08	-$0.49	$4.45	-$0.32	$0.01	$0.92	$1.93	$1.15	$1.84	$0.31	$2.94	$1.41	$4.94	$1.66	$0.86	-$6.50	-$1.41

Review source filings at SEC.gov ↗

Insider buys & sells

Jul 1, 2024–Jun 30, 2026

Buys3$2.18M disclosed value

Sells (SEC code S)2$675.0K disclosed value

Transaction	Insider	Type	Shares	Price	Value	Owned after
Jun 23, 2026Form 4	THORNTON JOHN LDirector	BuyCommon Stock, $0.01 par value	10.6K	$14.05	$148.9K	486.7K
Feb 19, 2026Form 4	FORD WILLIAM CLAY JRExecutive Chair and Chair	BuyClass B Stock, $0.01 par value · indirect	140.0K	$13.82	$1.93M	3.91M
Nov 14, 2025Form 4	THORNTON JOHN LDirector	BuyCommon Stock, $0.01 par value	7.5K	$13.19	$99.2K	448.7K
Jul 2, 2025Form 4 · 10b5-1	Frick AndrewPresident, Ford Blue & Model e	SellCommon Stock, $0.01 par value	30.0K	$11.50	$345.0K	83.9K
Jul 1, 2025Form 4 · 10b5-1	Frick AndrewPresident, Ford Blue & Model e	SellCommon Stock, $0.01 par value	30.0K	$11.00	$330.0K	113.9K

Review ownership filings at SEC.gov ↗

FORD MOTOR CO (F)

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Insider buys & sells